Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Aug 04 2023Valid 12Z Fri Aug 04 2023 – 12Z Sun Aug 06 2023
…Persistent heat will continue to affect the Desert Southwest, Southern
Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley into the weekend……Elevated potential for flash flooding across the Northern High Plains
today, expanding eastward through the Dakotas into Minnesota for
Saturday……Stormy conditions expected for portions of the central to southeastern
U.S. through Saturday…
| Notices: Recently we published the Update to the previously published Mid-Month Outlook for August and you can access that article HERE. We recommend reading the full report as it is very important. Looking at the full article provides a more coherent view of the overall Four-Season Outlook. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
A long-lived ridge aloft will maintain its position from portions of the
Desert Southwest to the central Gulf Coast through the weekend. This
feature aloft will suppress thunderstorm coverage beneath it and ensure
high heat index values across a good portion of the South. Another day of
possible record breaking maximum temperatures will exist today from
portions of New Mexico into Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Excessive Heat Warnings are in place from northern Texas, central and
eastern Oklahoma into the Lower Mississippi Valley today where heat index
values are likely to exceed 110 degrees during peak afternoon heating.
Similar conditions are expected on Saturday for these same locations but a
relatively strong cold front is expected to bring some relief from the
heat to Kansas, Missouri and portions of Oklahoma for Sunday.An upper level disturbance will track from Montana and Wyoming toward the
east today. Above average moisture will contribute to an extended period
of heavy rain with embedded high rainfall rates, leading to an average of
2 to 4 inches of rain for the northern High Plains, with isolated higher
totals through Saturday. Numerous showers and thunderstorms from
southeastern Montana into southwestern North Dakota and northwestern South
Dakota are expected where a Moderate Risk of flash flooding is in place
through Saturday morning. The threat for excessive rainfall will shift
east for the weekend as the upper level disturbance tracks into the
north-central U.S. Multiple rounds of heavy rain are also expected for
portions of the central to southeastern U.S. through Saturday as well, in
the vicinity of a lingering frontal boundary and with elevated moisture
levels in place from the nation’s Heartland into the central and eastern
Gulf Coast region.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
|
|
|
| 8–
14 |
|
|
| 3–
4 |
|
|
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
–
| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
–
