Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Aug 03 2023Valid 12Z Thu Aug 03 2023 – 12Z Sat Aug 05 2023
…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Ohio/Tennessee/Middle Mississippi Valleys, Southeast and Southern
Appalachians, along with two areas over the Northern/Central Plains into
the Great Basin……There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central High Plains……Excessive Heat Warnings and Advisories from parts of Central/Southern
Plains and the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast…
| Notices: Recently we published the Update to the previously published Mid-Month Outlook for August and you can access that article HERE. We recommend reading the full report as it is very important. Looking at the full article provides a more coherent view of the overall Four-Season Outlook. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
A wave of low pressure over the Central Plains will move eastward into the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys by Friday. Tropical moisture, upper-level energy,
and a nearby front will create showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain
over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee/Middle Mississippi Valleys, Southeast and
Southern Appalachians. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee/Middle Mississippi
Valleys, Southeast and Southern Appalachians through Friday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.Additionally, the system will produce showers and severe thunderstorms
over parts of Tennessee, Alabama, and northwestern Georgia. Therefore, the
SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Tennessee Valley, Southeast, and Southern Appalachians through Friday
morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.Meanwhile, upper-level energy and a steady moisture supply will produce
showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of Colorado, northwestern
Kansas, and southwestern Nebraska. Therefore, the SPC has issued an
Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over the Central High Plains through
Friday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal
threat of tornadoes. However, there is an increased threat of severe
thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots or greater over the region.Moreover, the showers and thunderstorms will create heavy rain over Idaho,
Utah, Wyoming, and South Dakota, as well as an area over parts of eastern
Colorado, southern Nebraska, and northern Kansas. Therefore, through
Friday morning, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall
over parts of the Northern Intermountain Region, Great Basin,
Northern/Central Plains, and Northern Rockies, including a second area
over parts of the Central High/Central Plains. The associated heavy rain
will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas,
roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.Also, on Thursday, a weak front moving southeastward out of Central Canada
will trigger showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of north-central
New York State late in the day. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight
Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of north-central New York State
through Friday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms
are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.The threat of severe thunderstorms continues on Friday over parts of the
Northeast. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Northeast from Friday into Saturday
morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of
tornadoes.Furthermore, the showers and thunderstorms will create heavy rain over
parts of New England. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of
excessive rainfall over parts of New England from Friday into Saturday
morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most
vulnerable.On Friday, upper-level energy and a steady supply of moisture will produce
showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of southeastern
Montana, northeastern Wyoming, southwestern North Dakota, and the western
half of South Dakota. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Northern High/Northern Plains from
Friday through Saturday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and
small streams the most vulnerable. Additionally, showers and moderate to
strong thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Central Plains,
Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Southeast on Friday.Furthermore, an upper-level high over the Southern Plains/Lower
Mississippi Valley will create oppressive daytime heat, limited overnight
cooling, which will also contribute to the effects of heat, prompting
Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over portions of the
Central/Southern Plains and the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley/Central
Gulf Coast. Further, a second region of Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat
Advisories are over parts of southeastern California and Southwest.In addition, an expansive heat wave will continue to affect much of the
country s southern tier through the weekend. The heat will be most
persistent in the south-central U.S., where it may last through the end of
next week with no relief. The combination of heat and humidity in the Gulf
Coast region will result in extremely dangerous peak heat index values
well in excess of 110 F from the weekend into early next week. The
oppressive daytime heat, limited overnight cooling, and widespread
record-warm nighttime lows will pose a significant health risk to anyone
without effective cooling and adequate hydration.Furthermore, the most persistently elevated heat indices are likely to be
in South and Southeast Texas and southern Louisiana. A few locations could
see a heat index approaching or exceeding 120 F.Moreover, dangerous heat is also likely to return to the Southwest,
particularly this weekend. The heat may affect the central valley of
California.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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