Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Jul 31 2023Valid 12Z Mon Jul 31 2023 – 12Z Wed Aug 02 2023
…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central
High Plains……Excessive Heat Warnings and Advisories from parts of Central/Southern
Plains and the Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast…
| Notices: Recently we published the NOAA Four-Season Outlook which you can access HERE. We recommend reading the full report as it is very important. Looking at the full article provides a more coherent view of the overall Four-Season Outlook. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
A front extending from the Southeast northwestward to the Northern High Plains will be quasi-stationary through Tuesday then the western half of the front dissipates. Along the west end of the boundary, showers and moderate to strong thunderstorms will develop on Monday over the Northern/Central High Plains. In addition, a second area of showers and moderate to strong thunderstorms will develop over the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley. The associated rainfall will be moderate over the region. The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain. Moreover, a third area of showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Southwest, Great Basin, and Central/Southern Rockies. Likewise, the associated rainfall will be moderate over the region. The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain. Furthermore, moisture and upper-level energy will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms from parts of the Southeast on Monday. Also, a weak front will cross the Northeast from Canada, producing showers and embedded thunderstorms later on Monday. On Tuesday, upper-level energy and moisture flowing into Colorado will produce an area of showers and moderate to strong thunderstorms over parts of the Central High Plains. In addition, moisture and upper-level energy will produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of extreme southeastern Wyoming and northeastern Colorado. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central High Plains from Tuesday into Wednesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable. Some moderate rain will extend southwestward into the Great Basin/Southwest with the area of showers and thunderstorms. Also, on Tuesday, upper-level energy and moisture will produce areas of showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Northern Plains and the Upper /Middle Mississippi Valley. The associated rainfall will be moderate over the region. The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain. Meanwhile, an upper-level high over the Central/Southern Plains will create hot high temperatures. In addition, a few locations will have record-high low temperatures contributing to areas not cooling off overnight, which will also contribute to the effects of heat, prompting Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over portions of the Central/Southern Plains and the Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast. In addition, a heat wave will also build early during the week across the south-central and southeastern U.S.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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