Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day
World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2023Valid 00Z Sat Jul 29 2023 – 00Z Mon Jul 31 2023
…Excessive Heat Advisories and Warnings are in effect for portions of
the East Coast, Central/Southern Plains, and over the Southwest……Temperature relief expected for the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic as a
cold front descends into the northern tier……An Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is in effect for portions of
the lower Great Lakes on Friday evening…
| Notices: Recently we published the NOAA Four-Season Outlook which you can access HERE. We recommend reading the full report as it is very important. Looking at the full article provides a more coherent view of the overall Four-Season Outlook. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here
Widespread near-record heat continues to impact a large portion of the
U.S. today as a large upper-level ridge sits over much of the central and
eastern U.S. Heat Advisories and Warnings are in effect for the
Mid-Atlantic, Northeast, and portions of the Central Plains/Midwest. Some
cities currently under Excessive Heat Warnings include Virginia Beach,
Washington D.C., Philadelphia, St. Louis, and Kansas City. These areas may
see high temperatures climb well north of 90F, even 100F in some areas. In
addition, oppressive humidity currently affecting much of the country will
contribute to widespread heat indices of 100-110+ over these areas.
Nighttime temperatures may only fall into the upper 70s and low 80s, which
will reduce overnight relief from the daytime heat. Many places are set to
break their temperature records for daytime highs as well as warm
nighttime lows through Saturday morning. If you are affected by this heat
wave, it is imperative to practice heat safety, especially if spending
extended periods of time outdoors.For those on the East Coast, temperature relief arrives sooner than later.
Areas of scattered thunderstorms along and preceding a cold front
approaching from Canada may help to limit the heat on Saturday for those
in the Northeast. On Sunday, this cold front will progress through
Mid-Atlantic, ultimately ending the heat wave for much of the East Coast.
However, over the Central Plains and southern tier, a more gradual relief
from the heat is expected. A surface cold front will slowly descend over
the northern tier of the country as the upper-level ridge responsible for
the hot conditions focuses over the central U.S. High temperatures over
the weekend are set to be in the mid to upper 90s over much of the central
and southern U.S., with heat index values of 100-105F. By Sunday,
temperatures over the central Plains will trend closer to average for this
time of year, and the heat wave will focus over the Southern Plains and
Gulf Coast.A few areas of severe weather and heavy rain are expected to form during
the short-term forecast period. The Storm Prediction Center has issued an
Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms (level 3/5) over the lower Great
Lakes region, effective through Saturday morning. Upper-level energy over
the northern Plains is expected to interact with an extremely unstable air
mass centered over Iowa, which will help to create an area of strong
thunderstorms on Friday evening. The main threats expected from this area
of thunderstorms are damaging wind gusts and large hail. Additionally, WPC
has issued a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) for this
system, noting the potential for repeated rounds of thunderstorms with
intense rainfall rates, creating localized flash flooding concerns. On
Saturday, this area of thunderstorms is expected to continue into the
Mid-Atlantic. Widely-scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop over
the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England ahead of the cold front. The
Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms
(level 2/5) over this area, with damaging winds being the primary severe
threat.Over the Southeast, a tropical upper-low and associated surface system
continues to force a wide region of scattered thunderstorms over the
region. The surface low is expected to progress northward through
southeastern Georgia before eventually weakening over the weekend.
Persistent onshore flow may result in locally heavy rainfall amounts along
the southeast coasts of Georgia and South Carolina on Friday evening. Over
the Southwest, summer heat will continue, with portions of the Southwest
and southern California set to experience near record highs and warm
nighttime lows. An gradual influx of upper-level moisture will begin to
impact the region, which may result in an increase in thunderstorm
coverage over the course of the weekend.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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