Updated at 5:10 p.m. EDT Thursday, July 20, 2023. Sorry for the delay but remember this is a 48 to 72 hour forecast which usually changes slowly.
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day
World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
145 PM EDT Thu Jul 20 2023Valid 00Z Fri Jul 21 2023 – 00Z Sun Jul 23 2023
…The highest risk of flash flooding/severe storms should persist into
Thursday night in and near the Colorado/Kansas Border……Lengthy & dangerous heat wave to continue across the Southern Tier & in
the West……Cooler and more comfortable air-mass to engulf the Great Plains and
Midwest…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful. Recently, we published the NOAA Four Season Outlook To read it, click HERE. We have published the update for July you can access it HERE. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
A strong cold front pressing south and east through the Nation’s Heartland
will collide with an exceptionally hot and muggy air-mass to produce
widespread thunderstorms into Thursday night. The region most at-risk for
flash flooding (Moderate Risk) and severe storms (Enhanced Risk) is the
central High Plains and portions of Tennessee. Robust thunderstorm
activity could produce any combination of flash flooding, damaging winds,
large hail, and tornadoes there. The severe weather and flash flood threat
(Slight Risk) is also present for many locations farther east, which would
extend into the evening hours on Thursday. See the latest WPC and SPC
outlooks for more details. By Friday the cold front continues to advance
farther south and east, placing the best threat for flash flooding and
strong-to-severe storms over the southern High Plains, Mid-South. and
Northeast. By Saturday morning, much of the Mid-South and Northeast will
trend drier as the cold front exits off the East Coast. However, the front
becomes stationary over the Gulf Coast states, setting up a stormy
Saturday in the South.For the remainder of the work-week, much of the southern tier (south of
the advancing front) and western third of the U.S. will remain mired in
this prolonged and dangerous heat wave. Record breaking daytime highs and
warm morning lows will be common from the Desert Southwest and South Texas
all the way east to Florida. The forecast calls for daytime highs to soar
into the triple digits in the Desert Southwest and Southern Plains, while
the Gulf Coast and Mid-South can expect daytime highs in the upper 90s
that coincide with oppressively high dew points through Friday, resulting
in sweltering heat indices as high as 120 degrees in some spots.
Meanwhile, daily low temperatures remain quite warm with breaking record
warm daily minimums expected, which will limit relief from the heat
overnight. Florida will also contend with stifling heat ahead of the
front, where lighter than average winds have led to above average sea
surface temperatures due to a weaker than average Bermuda High. Please
visit heat.gov, as well as the Key Messages issued by the Weather
Prediction Center and Climate Prediction Center for more information on
impacts from the heat wave.Behind the cold front, cooler and drier air sweeps in. By Friday, parts of
the Central Plains could see daytime highs that are as low as 15-20
degrees below normal. The East will see milder air arrive by Saturday,
including in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast where daytime highs look to be
several degrees below normal and humidity levels that are more refreshing
for mid-late July.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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