Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day
World weather outlook.
We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Valid 00Z Tue Jul 18 2023 – 00Z Thu Jul 20 2023…Lengthy heat wave to continue in the Southwest, South Central U.S., and
South Florida……Tropical Storm Calvin weakening on approach to Hawai’i…heavy rains
expected……Canadian wildfires/smoke responsible for Air Quality alerts over parts
of the Northern High Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful. Recently, we published the NOAA Four Season Outlook To read it, click HERE. We have published the update for July you can access it HERE. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
The upper level ridge of high pressure responsible for the heat wave in
the West will expand across the Southwest and Gulf Coast states through
mid-week. Record breaking heat is expected in the Four Corners states,
Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley, and South Florida each day.
Daytime highs will routinely reside in the triple digits in the Desert
Southwest and Texas. The Gulf Coast and Mid-South can expect daytime highs
in the mid-upper 90s that coincide with oppressively high dew points,
resulting in sweltering heat indices between 105-115F. Daily low
temperatures will remain quite warm, breaking record warm daily minimums
in some areas, allowing for minimal relief from the heat overnight. An
expansive area of Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories remains in
the Southwest, Southern Plains, western Gulf Coast, and even parts of
South Florida where the air-sea interaction is leading to a feedback loop
between the air and water temperatures due to the lighter than average
wind flow. Please visit heat.gov for more information on impacts from the
heat wave. The Northeast and Mid-Atlantic will continue to see hot and
humid conditions through Tuesday, despite the recent passage of a weak
cold front. To the west, a stronger cold front will provide the Midwest
and Great Lakes with cooler than normal temperatures. Some locations in
the Upper Midwest will struggle to get out of the 70s for highs on
Tuesday.In the north-central Pacific ocean, Tropical Storm Calvin will continue to
weaken as it approaches the island of Hawai’i, where tropical storm
watches are in effect — late Tuesday into Wednesday, with the system
becoming a tropical depression later on Wednesday. The system should lead
to locally heavy rainfall, as much as 4-7 inches on windward slopes, as it
passes by the 50th state. Rough seas are also possible. See Central
Pacific Hurricane Center advisories on Calvin for more information on the
storm.Back in the Lower 48, numerous showers and thunderstorms will engulf
portions of the Midwest and much of the East on Tuesday and Wednesday. On
Tuesday, the threat for heavy and excessive rainfall become heightened
over the Northeast as a cold front approaches from the west. On Tuesday
and Wednesday, portions of the Ohio Valley have heightened risks of
excessive rainfall, with the best chance of severe weather near the
Illinois/Missouri border on Tuesday per Storm Prediction Center outlooks,
with lower chances in the Plains and Ohio Valley on Wednesday. For exact
threat levels and related discussions, see WPC excessive rainfall outlooks
and SPC Convective Outlooks.Canada’s has witnessed their most extensive wildfires on record in 2023
based on area burned; an area approaching the size of Kentucky. Smoke
from the Canadian wildfires will remain in the picture through Tuesday as
northwesterly winds aloft that originate from Canada continue to direct
smoke into the Lower 48. There are Air Quality alerts issued for areas the
include the northern High Plains, the Midwest, Great Lakes, central
Tennessee and North Carolina, and into the Northeast where higher
concentrations of smoke will result in unhealthy air quality for sensitive
groups. Smoke concentrations should diminish over parts of the Heartland
on Tuesday, but may still cause poor air quality along the East Coast.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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