Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
313 PM EDT Fri Jul 07 2023Valid 00Z Sat Jul 08 2023 – 00Z Mon Jul 10 2023
…Locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding possible across the Northeast
through tonight, with another bout of intense rainfall likely on Sunday……Additional rounds of severe weather and flash flooding persist across
the Central and Southern Plains through this weekend as the threat
gradually slides eastward into the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi
Valley……Hot weather continues for portions of the Southwest, West Texas,
interior Pacific Northwest, and Florida Peninsula…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful. Recently, we published the NOAA Four Season Outlook To read it, click HERE. Tonight we will publish the update for July. Look for it in the morning. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
Conditions will remain hot and humid along the East Coast heading into the
weekend as ample moisture remains in place across the region. A frontal
system slowly pushing in from the west as well as a typical buoyant
summertime airmass will lead to the risk of continued thunderstorms
through this evening. Some storms could contain locally intense rainfall
rates for portions of interior New England and the Northeast southward
into the Mid-Atlantic, with a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level
2/4) in place through tonight. After more widely scattered and isolated
thunderstorm chances on Saturday, the next round of heavy rainfall is
likely to enter the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Sunday
associated with the next approaching frontal system. A few inches of
rainfall are likely, with locally heavier amounts possible within heavier
downpours, particularly between eastern Pennsylvania/New Jersey to Upstate
New York/Vermont. A Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall remains in effect
for this region on Sunday.A pair of meandering frontal systems under energetic flow aloft over
portions of the Central/Southern Plains will help to trigger additional
rounds of organized convection into this weekend. With ample surface
moisture pooling along the boundaries, a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall
is in effect from southeastern Colorado through southern Kansas/northern
Oklahoma and into southwestern Missouri and northwestern Arkansas through
tonight, with another Slight Risk extending eastward into the Lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys on Saturday. Convective systems
developing in the late afternoon/early evening and continuing overnight
will have the potential to produce additional rounds of heavy rainfall
over already saturated soils from recent episodes, with a risk for flash
flooding. In addition, flow aloft will be strong enough to lead to
sufficient deep-layer shear for organized thunderstorms, with the Storm
Prediction Center issuing Slight Risks for severe weather (level 2/5)
generally co-located with the flash flood risk. A small Enhanced Risk
(level 3/5) for severe weather has been issued for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles, where the risk for damaging winds is greatest. Large hail and
damaging winds will be the main threats overall. Additional rain chances
are also expected further north into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest
ahead of another frontal system pushing south from Canada this evening.
Temperatures will be seasonably hot south of the fronts over the Southern
Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley, with upper 80s to mid-90s forecast.
In contrast, highs will be well below average by as much as 10-15 degrees
for portions of the Central/Northern Plains and Midwest. Temperatures will
generally be in the 70s, with a few cooler spots in the upper 60s and a
few warmer locations into the low 80s.Temperatures will generally be Summer-time hot and above average for the
interior Northwest and Southwest as areas of upper-level ridging aloft
remain in place heading into the weekend. Heat-related warnings and
advisories are in effect for portions of southern Arizona/New Mexico and
West Texas as highs rise into the 100s, with low 110s for portions of
Arizona. In addition, Red Flag Warnings as well as a Critical Risk of Fire
Weather from the Storm Prediction Center are in place for the Four Corners
region as steady winds and very dry antecedent conditions combine with the
hot temperatures to enhance the threat for wildfires. While advisories are
not currently in place, highs generally in the mid-90s for interior
portions of the Northwest will be running 10-15 degrees above average.
Conditions will be closer to average for the urban I-5 corridor, with 80s
forecast. A pair of upper-level lows/waves just off the West Coast will
keep things a bit cooler along the coast from the Pacific Northwest south
through California with 60s forecast, and mid-80s to low 90s for the
interior valleys. Additionally, hot and very humid conditions will allow
for heat indices to rise between 105-110 across parts of the Florida
Peninsula this evening, including Miami and Jacksonville.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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