Updated at 6:06 p.m. Monday June 26, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2023Valid 00Z Tue Jun 27 2023 – 00Z Thu Jun 29 2023
…Oppressive heatwave over the south-central U.S. begins to expand into
the Plains/Midwest and Lower Mississippi Valley mid-week……Showers and thunderstorms will continue into Tuesday and Wednesday for
much of the Northeast……Rain chances for the northern tier of the West; a Critical Risk of Fire
Weather for the Four Corners region Tuesday…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful. Recently, we published the NOAA Four Season Outlook To read it, click HERE. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
The stagnant upper-level ridge over the south-central U.S. and resultant
multi-week heatwave will not only continue but begin to expand in reach
over the next couple of days as the ridge builds northeastward. Highs from
southeastern Arizona through southern New Mexico and into Texas will
remain in the 100s Tuesday, with upper 90s to 100s spreading northward
into the Central Plains and Middle/Lower Missouri Valley as well as east
into the Lower Mississippi Valley Wednesday. Some daily
record-tying/breaking highs are once again possible for portions of Texas
and the Lower Mississippi Valley. Daily record-tying/breaking warm lows
are also possible, with the abnormally warm temperatures overnight
providing little to no relief from the heat, compounding the impacts of
the heat wave. The main driver of heat-related impacts differs across the
region, with higher air temperatures in the deserts and High
Plains/western Plains, and lower air temperatures but higher humidity and
resultant heat indices to the east, both contributing to a significant
risk of heat-related illnesses. Temperatures in Florida will also remain
quite hot Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs in the mid-90s close to
tying/breaking a few daily records. In addition to the heat, some robust
thunderstorms are expected to develop along the Central High Plains
Tuesday, later organizing and spreading southeastward, with the Storm
Prediction Center outlining portions of northern Oklahoma and southern
Kansas in a Slight Risk of severe weather (level 2/5) for the chance of
damaging winds and large hail.Widespread clusters of showers and thunderstorms will continue overnight
Monday into the early morning hours Tuesday along the East Coast as a low
pressure/frontal system pushes eastward through the region, with the risk
of heavy rainfall/flash flooding and severe weather. Western portions of
the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas will likely clear a little quicker Tuesday
following the passage of the front than further north into the Northeast,
where the system will take longer to pass through. Some locally heavy rain
will remain possible the next couple of days, with the potential for some
isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding not out of the question,
especially for areas that may have received a lot of rainfall on Monday.
Highs will remain well below average in the Great Lakes region, Upper Ohio
Valley, and New England Tuesday and Wednesday, with upper 60s to low 70s
forecast. Highs will be a bit warmer further south and east into the
Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas, with 80s expected. A few scattered
thunderstorms will be possible the next couple of days in the Southeast
along the front passing through. Highs will be in the upper 80s to low
90s.Rain chances will continue from the Great Basin into the Northern
Rockies/High Plains Tuesday ahead of a very slowly moving upper-level
trough over the West Coast. Showers and storms are also expected to spread
eastward into the Northern Plains overnight Tuesday and the Upper Midwest
Wednesday as energetic upper-level flow passes over the region. Relatively
high moisture along and east of the Rockies may lead to some locally heavy
rainfall. Further southwest, strong winds aloft associated with the
upper-level trough will mix down and lead to some gusty winds,
particularly for the eastern Great Basin and the central/southern Rockies.
The winds in combination with very low humidity and dry conditions have
prompted a Critical Risk of Fire Weather from the Storm Prediction Center
for the Four Corners region on Tuesday. Temperatures will generally remain
below average for much of the West under the influence of the upper-level
trough. Forecast highs will range from the mid-70s to low 80s for most of
the Great Basin and northern Rockies. The immediate West Coast will be in
the 60s, with mid-80s to low 90s for the central California valleys and
upper 90s to low 100s for much of the desert southwest outside of
southeastern Arizona. Highs will be above average for the Pacific
Northwest, with upper 70s to low 80s for the I-5 urban corridor and mid-
to upper 80s for the interior.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
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| 8–
14 |
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| 3–
4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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