Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
345 AM EDT Mon Jun 12 2023Valid 12Z Mon Jun 12 2023 – 12Z Wed Jun 14 2023
…Multi-day severe thunderstorm and flash flooding threat to continue
between the southern Plains and Southeast over the next few days……Instances of flash flooding and severe weather possible across parts of
the central High Plains and Mid-Atlantic today……Triple digit and potentially record-breaking heat expected throughout
much of central and southern Texas…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
Recently, we published the World Agriculture Report. You can access this report HERE. We also published the June 1 Update of the Colorado and Eastern Great Basin. You can access that article HERE. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
A stormy weather pattern throughout much of the south-central United
States and Southeast is expected to continue through midweek as a frontal
boundary lingers across the region. Plentiful atmospheric moisture content
and instability will allow for developing thunderstorms near the
quasi-stationary front each day between today and Wednesday, with the
severe weather and heavy rainfall threats gradually shifting eastward with
time. For today, thunderstorms capable of containing intense downpours,
damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes are most likely to
impact a region extending from the southern Plains to the central Gulf
Coast. Very large hail is possible across central Texas, where the Storm
Prediction Center has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) for severe
weather. By Tuesday and Wednesday upper-level forcing supports greater
thunderstorm chances strung eastward along the frontal boundary towards
the Southeast. Here, scattered severe thunderstorms and daily rainfall
amounts over 2″ are forecast. Where clusters of storms overlap, flash
flooding will be a concern across low-lying and urban regions. Farther
west along this same frontal boundary, flash flooding and scattered
thunderstorms are once again a possibility throughout the central High
Plains today. Since this region has experienced a very wet past few
months, terrain will be more susceptible to flooding concerns where heavy
rainfall occurs. A Slight Risk (level 2/4) for Excessive Rainfall has been
issued for an area extending from southeast Wyoming to western Oklahoma.
Some storms between southeast Colorado and the Oklahoma Panhandle could
also be strong enough to contain large hail.Elsewhere, a low pressure system deepening over the Great Lakes and
attached cold front pushing through the Mid-Atlantic today will allow for
isolated-to-scattered severe weather chances from eastern North Carolina
to southern New Jersey. Locally heavy rain is also possible from eastern
Pennsylvania to central New York State, but should be mostly beneficial
given the very dry month so far. However, an isolated instance of flash
flooding can’t be ruled out should overlapping thunderstorms occur over
urbanized areas. This low pressure system will also produce scattered
showers into New England and the Great Lakes through Wednesday. Another
round of unsettled weather is anticipated to enter the Ohio Valley and
central Appalachians on Tuesday as the system finally makes its exit
eastward. The Intermountain West will also remain active with widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms to the north of a disintegrating
upper-level low. Isolated flash flooding could impact sensitive terrain
between the Sierra Nevada and northern Rockies. A strong cold front
pushing into the northern Great Basin Tuesday night will provide focus for
potentially more organized convection over the northern High Plains on
Wednesday.Summer heat will continue to plague central and southern Texas through
this week as widespread high temperatures reach into the upper 90s and low
100s. When combined with humidity, heat indices are forecast to reach into
the 110s across South Texas. Above average temperatures are also
anticipated over northern New England today, as well as the Northwest and
north-central U.S. through midweek. For these locations, highs are
forecast to reach into the mid-to-upper 80s and low 90s. Meanwhile,
sustained below average temperatures are expected over the Southwest,
central High Plains and Great Lakes.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6
– 10
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| 8
– 14 |
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| 3
– 4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
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Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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