Updated at 6:57 p.m. Saturday, June 10, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Sat Jun 10 2023Valid 00Z Sun Jun 11 2023 – 00Z Tue Jun 13 2023
…Severe thunderstorms expected across parts of the Southern Plains and
Lower Mississippi Valley through tonight……Locally heavy rainfall and some potential for flash flooding will shift
over into the Ohio/Tennessee valleys on Sunday, but will also still be a
concern for the central High Plains……Triple digit heat builds into much of Texas over the next few days…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
Recently, we published the Weather Update for June. You can access it HERE. We also published the Weekly Crop Report. It can be accessed HERE Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
An active summer weather pattern is expected to continue into the new week
ahead, with several rounds of showers and thunderstorms impacting the
nation. Portions of the southern Plains in particular will see a notable
threat of severe weather heading through the evening and overnight hours
with a focus on central and eastern Texas through adjacent areas of the
Lower Mississippi Valley. This will be driven by energy associated with an
upper-level trough interacting with a frontal zone and the pooling of very
moist and unstable air from the western Gulf of Mexico. Clusters of
thunderstorms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts, very large
hail, and a couple of tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center has issued an
Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe weather for this region through early
Sunday morning. Thunderstorms may also contain intense rainfall rates, and
produce concerns for scattered instances flash flooding. The Weather
Prediction Center has depicted a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of excessive
rainfall across areas of eastern Texas and the ArkLaTex through tonight.Elsewhere, a developing low pressure system over the central Plains will
advance east into the Ohio Valley on Sunday as a trailing cold front
settles southward. This will drive a fairly widespread threat of heavy
showers and thunderstorms for the Ohio and Tennessee Valley region. Some
pockets of severe weather will be possible and the Storm Prediction Center
does have a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms depicted for
portions of the lower Ohio Valley and the Mid-South. A couple inches of
rain is expected locally, and there may be some isolated to widely
scattered instances of flash flooding where some of the stronger
thunderstorms materialize. Areas of the Mid-South will tend to see the
greatest threat of any flash flooding and the Weather Prediction Center
does have a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of excessive rainfall depicted over
this region for Sunday into early Monday. Overall, the rainfall across
much of the region should be beneficial and especially over the Ohio
Valley where many areas have been abnormally dry and are locally in a
moderate drought.This low pressure system will move into the lower Great Lakes region on
Monday and drive a cold front into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast.
Scattered areas of showers and thunderstorms can be expected followed by
somewhat cooler temperatures in behind the front. The rainfall will be
highly beneficial for most areas given the very dry spring that has
unfolded this season.Meanwhile, wet and unsettled weather is expected to continue across many
areas of the central High Plains and parts of the Intermountain West as a
front will remain in the vicinity through the weekend which coupled with
the arrival of new upper-level energy should produce additional rounds of
locally heavy showers and thunderstorms. Some additional areas of flash
flooding will be possible and the Weather Prediction Center once again has
highlighted a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of excessive rainfall across
portions of the High Plains.The temperature outlook across the Lower 48 through Monday consists of
sustained cooler temperatures over the Southwest, as well as over the
Great Lakes and central High Plains by Sunday into next week. Meanwhile,
triple-digit heat is expected to build into the Lone Star State through
the weekend, with well above average temperatures also found throughout
the Pacific Northwest. The upper-level pattern responsible for these
daytime temperatures consist of upper-level lows over the Southwest and
Great Lakes, with ridging over the south-central and northwestern United
States. Widespread highs into the upper 90s and low 100s are forecast
across central/southern Texas through Monday, with heat indices nearing
110 degrees across far southern sections of the state. Residents are
advised to take early-season heat seriously and follow proper heat safety
tips.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6
– 10
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| 8
– 14 |
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| 3
– 4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
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Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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