Updated at 8:02 p.m. Thursday, June 2, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
346 PM EDT Fri Jun 02 2023Valid 00Z Sat Jun 03 2023 – 00Z Mon Jun 05 2023
…Tropical Storm Arlene Forms in the Gulf of Mexico…
…There are Moderate Risks of Excessive Rainfall over the Texas Panhandle
& northern High Plains; Enhanced Risk for severe weather in the southern
High Plains this afternoon……Stormy weather to linger in the Rockies & Plains…
…Prolonged summer heat in the North Central U.S; cooler temperatures
return to the Northeast & Mid-Atlantic this weekend.
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
Recently, we published the Weather Update for June. You can access it HERE. We also published the Weekly Crop Report. It can be accessed HERE. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
A large-scale blocking pattern over North America is leading to a series
of upper level disturbances tracking across the southern tier and off the
East Coast this weekend, while a robust ridge of high pressure forms over
the North Central U.S, and southern Canada. This pattern aided in the
formation of Tropical Storm Arlene today, which is located in the eastern
Gulf of Mexico. Fortunately, the storm will track south and pose no threat
to Florida, eventually dissipating later this weekend as it tracks towards
northern Cuba. However, daily rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms
will be common each afternoon across the Florida Peninsula this weekend.
There is a Marginal Risk (threat level 1/4) in southern Florida, as well
as in New England as a cold front makes its way south this afternoon.The stormiest weather will reside from the southern and central High
Plains to the northern Rockies. Southeasterly flow continues to usher in
anomalous moisture content into these regions, who have also received well
above normal rainfall over the past 2-4 weeks. Given the combination of
sensitive soils and downpours within thunderstorms, a pair of Moderate
Risks (threat level 3/4) for Excessive Rainfall are in place over eastern
Montana and the Texas Panhandle today. There are also Slight Risks (threat
level 2/4) in the southern High Plains and both central Montana and
northern Wyoming. Regarding severe weather, the Storm Prediction Center
has an Enhanced Risk area (threat level 3/5) in west Texas, with a larger
Slight Risk area (threat level 2/5) encompassing more of the southern High
Plains. Severe storms may contain a combination of tornadoes, large hail,
and damaging wind gusts. By Saturday, the Excessive Rainfall Marginal Risk
footprint stretches from the Rio Grande River on north through the central
Plains/Rockies and into northern Montana. The area most at-risk for flash
flooding is in the southern High Plains where a Slight Risk is in place.Temperature-wise, following a day of record heat in the Northeast and
Great Lakes, hot conditions will persist through the weekend from the
Northern Plains and Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes. Record warmth
is anticipated in the Upper Mississippi Valley and parts of the Ohio
Valley on Saturday. While not as many records are set to be broken on
Sunday, daytime highs will continue to range between 10-20 degrees above
normal from the Dakotas to the Great Lakes. The West Coast, particularly
areas farther inland, can also expect hotter than normal conditions, while
the immediate coastline stays on the seasonably cool side. After a rather
hot Friday in the Northeast, a cold front will race south along the
Eastern Seaboard and deliver a cooler than normal air-mass to coastal New
England on Saturday, then into the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday. Cooler than
normal temperatures look to stick around in the southern and central
Rockies and Plains due to the ongoing cloudy and stormy stretch of
weather.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
6 –
10
8 –
14
3 –
4
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
–
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
I hope you found this article interesting and useful. –
