Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
350 PM EDT Thu Jun 01 2023Valid 00Z Fri Jun 02 2023 – 00Z Sun Jun 04 2023
…Heavy rain to likely lead to additional instances of flash flooding
across the Texas Panhandle on Friday, as well as the possibility of severe
thunderstorms……Increasing threat of excessive rainfall across parts of north-central
Montana to end the week……Much above average temperatures throughout the Northeast on Friday
ahead of an approaching backdoor cold front to swing through the region by
Saturday…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
Recently, we published the Weather Update for June. You can access it HERE. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
Upper-level troughing over the western U.S. will continue to support
active weather from the Great Plains to the Intermountain West over at
least the next few days, with increasing chances for areas of heavy
rainfall and flash flooding. Ongoing scattered thunderstorms are expected
to continue throughout the region tonight, further saturating terrain
ahead of potentially more impactful rainfall on Friday. Starting in the
southern High Plains, a shortwave trough entering the southern Rockies by
Friday morning and exiting from above the subtropical eastern Pacific will
aid in sparking numerous thunderstorms to the east of a New Mexico/West
Texas dry line. Intense rainfall rates are expected to accompany the
developing clusters of thunderstorms, while tracking over much of the
already saturated Texas Panhandle. This part of the country has received
well above average precipitation over the last 30 days, as much as 600%
above normal, which leads to highly susceptible soils unable to contain
additional heavy rain. Flood Watches remain in effect across the Oklahoma
and Texas Panhandles, as well as northeast New Mexico. Additionally,
severe weather is possible from the Texas Panhandle to the Permian Basin
of western Texas. Some storms in these areas could produce very large
hail, strong wind gusts, and a couple of tornadoes. Scattered areas of
showers and thunderstorms may continue to impact the southern Plains into
the start of the weekend, but should become much more isolated when
compared to the activity on Friday.Farther north throughout the central and northern High Plains, a separate
system within the elongated western U.S. upper-level trough will focus
areas of scattered thunderstorms throughout much of Wyoming and central
Montana. A nearby frontal boundary will help focus a corridor of heavy
rain across central and north-central Montana, creating an environment
ripe for slow-moving and training thunderstorms. Where several inches of
rainfall occurs, numerous instances of flash flooding are possible. Flood
Watches are in effect from central Montana to western Nebraska. Residents
and visitors are advised to heed any warnings and never drive through
flooded roadways.Elsewhere, scattered instances of heavy rain are possible across both the
Northeast and Southeast through this weekend. For the Southeast, much of
the thunderstorm activity will be associated with a strung-out upper-level
trough extending from the eastern Atlantic to the eastern Gulf of Mexico,
as well as a weak upper-level low over the Gulf. Underneath this upper
low, a developing surface low may focus shower and thunderstorm activity
across parts of the Florida Peninsula. Localized heavy rainfall is
possible each day through this weekend, with the heavy rainfall threat
gradually shifting south and confining to the Gold Coast of southeast
Florida by Saturday. Isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding is
possible. For the Northeast, a backdoor cold front entering the region on
Friday will spark scattered thunderstorms capable of containing intense
downpours over New England. This cold front will eventually progress
through the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday and offer a relief from what is
expected to be an early taste of summer.Speaking of summer, these well above average and potentially
record-breaking temperatures are expected to peak across the Northeast and
Great Lakes on Friday. Highs into upper 80s and low 90s will equate to
10-20 degrees above average when compared to climatology. Some daily high
temperature records could also be at risk throughout the region. The
early-summer warmth is forecast to remain across the Great Lakes, Midwest,
and northern Plains through the weekend, while the East Coast cools down
substantially thanks to easterly flow off the Atlantic Ocean.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
6 –
10
8 –
14
3 –
4
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
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Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
I hope you found this article interesting and useful. –
