Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed May 31 2023Valid 12Z Wed May 31 2023 – 12Z Fri Jun 02 2023
…Widespread scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across large
portions of the central U.S., the northern Rockies and northern Great
Basin……Watching the potential for low pressure to develop in the eastern Gulf
and bring increasing chance of thunderstorms across southern Florida next
few days……Much above average temperatures along the northern tier of the nation
but cooler than normal across the southern tier and along the West and
East Coasts…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
Recently, we published the NOAA 2023 Hurricane Outlook. You can access it HERE. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
A blocky weather pattern continues across the mainland U.S. as we end the
month of May and head into June. This pattern continues to present itself
with upper troughing across the western U.S. leading to widespread
scattered showers and thunderstorms over much of the central U.S., the
northern Rockies and northern Great Basin/Intermountain region.
Meanwhile, a trough moving into the Gulf of Mexico and another
trough/closed low off the Mid-Atlantic coast will remain blocked by an
upper-level closed high over northeastern U.S. which is forecast to expand
to the west into the Great Lakes over the next couple of days. This
pattern is manifested with a north-south temperature
reversal at the surface, with much above normal temperatures across the
northern tier states in contrast with cooler than normal conditions across
the southern tier and along the West and East Coasts. By Friday, the
Northeast is forecast to be very warm with high temperatures challenging
daily records under the expanding upper High.Scattered showers and thunderstorms will once again be most active during
the afternoon into the evening hours today and into Thursday from northern
California through the northern Rockies where a marginal risk of flash
flooding is anticipated. Later on Thursday into Thursday night, chance of
heavy rain/showers are expected to be more focused across the northern
High Plains with a slight risk of flash flooding. Meanwhile, strong to
severe thunderstorms will be most likely across the central to southern
High Plains through the next couple of days as upper-level impulses from
the western U.S. mean trough eject into the Great Plains.Across the Mid-Atlantic, a lingering upper low with a stationary front at
the surface will continue to push cooler air down from New England to the
East Coast and Appalachians. There remains the chance for some light
scattered showers and thunderstorms to spin back onshore into the
Mid-Atlantic during the next couple of days. To the south, an upper-level
trough settling over the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to spawn a new
low-pressure system at the surface. This system is currently being
monitored by the National Hurricane Center. The exact track of this
system remains uncertain, but showers and thunderstorms ahead of the
system are expected to become increasingly active over the Florida
Peninsula through the next few days.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
6 –
10
8 –
14
3 –
4
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
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Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE.
I hope you found this article interesting and useful. –
