Updated at 3:50 p.m. EDT Sunday, May 28, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
306 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023Valid 00Z Mon May 29 2023 – 00Z Wed May 31 2023
…Unsettled and cool weather remains across the Mid-Atlantic through
Tuesday……Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to linger across the Great
Basin, northern and central Rockies, Great Plains, and Upper Midwest for
the next few days……Above average temperatures forecast throughout the northern half of the
Nation…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
Recently, we published the NOAA Seasonal Outlook. You can access it HERE. It announces the coming of a full El Nino. There remain questions about how strong it will be and exactly when it will arrive. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
A somewhat stagnant upper-level pattern featuring cutoff upper-level lows
over the Mid-Atlantic and off the California Coast, as well as an
upper-level high over the Great Lakes and Northeast, will allow for a
similar weather pattern to remain through at least Tuesday. A slow-moving
low pressure system pushing further inland over eastern North Carolina
this afternoon will spread shower and thunderstorm activity into much of
the Mid-Atlantic. This system will gradually weaken, but remain mostly
stationary and allow for renewed daily scattered showers/thunderstorms on
Monday and Tuesday. Rain chances mostly span from the Delmarva Peninsula
and southern Maryland to much of West Virginia, Virginia, and North
Carolina. A few storms could contain intense rainfall rates and lead to
localized flooding concerns, particularly over western North Carolina and
southwest Virginia through tonight. Meanwhile, a strong high pressure
system to the north will limit much northward progress in the
precipitation shield as dry air infiltrates from the northeast. These
gusty northeast winds will also keep much of the Mid-Atlantic within below
average temperatures, while also creating dangerous rip currents and large
breaking waves along beaches.Active weather will also continue throughout much of the Intermountain
West spanning across the Rockies and into the Plains. Troughing over the
West will support continued thunderstorm activity while also providing
support for moist air to continue flowing northward out of the Gulf of
Mexico and eastern Pacific into the Great Plains. Thunderstorms are most
likely to turn severe across parts of the central/southern Plains this
evening, with an isolated severe threat stretching into the northern
Plains on Memorial Day and Tuesday. Additionally, isolated instances of
flash flooding are also possible in these regions, with a higher threat of
slow-moving heavy downpours over South Texas and middle-to-lower Texas
coasts on Monday. A gradual eastward shift in developing convection will
allow for rain chances to also enter the Upper Midwest by Monday. For
northern California and the central/northern Great Basin, scattered
showers and thunderstorms could occur over regions with swollen rivers and
high stream flows due to snowmelt, as well as sensitive terrain associated
with burn scars.The temperature outlook for the Nation will feature most locations
experiencing high temperatures in the 70s and 80s through Tuesday. This
equates to above average temperatures throughout the northern half of the
country and below average across the southern tier.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
6 –
10
8 –
14
3 –
4
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
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I hope you found this article interesting and useful. –
