Updated at 3:40 p.m. EDT Tuesday, May 16, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
333 PM EDT Tue May 16 2023Valid 00Z Wed May 17 2023 – 00Z Fri May 19 2023
…Heavy rainfall, flooding and severe weather are possible across the
Mid-Atlantic and Tennessee Valley this evening……Above-normal temperatures continue in the West…
…Cooler, drier air across Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Northeast through
midweek in wake of potent cold front…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
Recently, we published the NOAA ENSO Update. You can access it HERE. It announces the coming of a full El Nino. There remain questions about how strong it will be. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
A multitude of weather hazards are expected through Tuesday evening as a
slow-moving frontal boundary positioned across the Mid-Atlantic and
Tennessee Valley continues to be a focus for heavy rainfall and severe
thunderstorms. Warm, moist air on the southern side of the boundary will
allow for the continued development of showers and thunderstorms that may
produce damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes, resulting in
the Storm Prediction Center issuing an Enhanced Risk of Severe
Thunderstorms for parts of the southern Appalachians. Furthermore, these
storms will have the ability to produce heavy rainfall rates, which may
also lead to isolated instances of flash flooding through the evening,
especially in areas highlighted by a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall
throughout southern West Virginia, eastern Kentucky, and portions of
Virginia and North Carolina. Conditions are expected to improve overnight
as the storms dissipate. However, as the frontal boundary pushes southward
on Wednesday, localized moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible along
the Gulf Coast and Southeast, with rainfall totals approaching 1-2 inches.Further north, a well-defined cold front surging southward through the
Great Lakes region and interior Northeast will result in a sharp
temperature and dewpoint decrease, especially in areas along Lake
Michigan, including the Chicago Metro area. Daytime temperatures in the
upper 70s to low 80s will quickly drop into the low 50s and upper 40s on
Tuesday evening in the wake of the boundary. As the front moves southward
across the Ohio Valley and Northeast on Wednesday, high temperatures will
remain in the low-to-mid 60s across coastal portions of the region, while
areas further inland, especially in the interior Northeast and New
England, experience temperatures remaining in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Furthermore, several record lows are forecast to be approached or broken
on Thursday morning across the region as temperatures hover around the 32F
degree mark before rebounding into the 60s during the day.West of the Continental Divide, above-average temperatures will continue
through midweek as an upper-level ridge persists, with widespread
temperature anomalies approaching 10-20 degrees above average. Warm air
will work its way from the West Coast into inland areas and the Great
Basin by mid-to-late week, with daytime highs in the mid-to-upper 80s
throughout the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin, while areas further
south across the Southwest and Southern California exceed the 90-degree
mark. Furthermore, widespread record-high minimum temperatures are
forecast across coastal and interior portions of the Pacific Northwest
through Thursday.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
6 –
10
8 –
14
3 –
4
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
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I hope you found this article interesting and useful. –
