Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 5, 2023

First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)

Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE

TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)

TOMORROW

NEXT DAY

This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.

ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS

This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update.   Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.

Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.

The weekend will kickoff with showers and thunderstorms from the Northwest
to the Central Plains tonight beneath a large mean upper-level trough with
embedded shortwaves rotating around it. Heavy rainfall will focus along
and around a stationary front draped across the Northern
Plains/Rockies/Great Basin, where we have a marginal risk of excessive
rainfall leading to flash flooding in effect through tonight. Some 24 hour
totals of over 2 inches are possible for parts of northwestern Montana and
far northern Idaho by Saturday afternoon/evening. Warm temperatures should
contribute to snowmelt which in turn will exacerbate any flooding concerns
brought on by rainfall. Downstream, some thunderstorms that develop along
the stationary front could turn severe over parts of northeastern
Colorado, western and central Nebraska and northwestern Kansas this
afternoon/evening. The Storm Prediction Center highlighted this area for a
Slight Risk due to the potential for slow moving supercells capable of
producing very large hail and damaging winds.

Elsewhere, shortwave energy will promote additional excessive rainfall
risk over portions of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley
tonight where thunderstorms, some severe, could generate high enough
rainfall rates to produce flash flooding. The Storm Prediction Center
highlighted portions of central Texas for a Slight Risk due to the
potential for large hail and locally damaging winds. The next shortwave
will emerge over the Southern Plains on Saturday. The continued presence
of a dry line oriented north-south across central Texas as well as
southeasterly flow bringing Gulf moisture could lead to another round of
severe thunderstorms over portions of southern Oklahoma into central Texas
where the Storm Prediction Center issued a Slight Risk. Severe
thunderstorms capable of producing very large hail and damaging gusts are
possible over the aforementioned areas Saturday afternoon into early
evening. An emerging wave of surface low pressure from the Central Plains
could generate severe thunderstorm activity capable of producing hail and
damaging gusts over parts of the Middle-Mississippi Valley Saturday
morning and afternoon. Heavy rainfall is possible over the central Gulf
Coast on Saturday as a shortwave swings through the region. Scattered to
isolated showers and thunderstorms spread across much of the Mississippi
Valley on Sunday with another area of severe weather possible over much of
Iowa and northern Missouri that afternoon/evening. The Storm Prediction
Center issued a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms for the aforementioned
areas due to the potential for large hail and damaging winds from any
severe storms that do develop.

Upper-level ridging will be responsible for anomalous warmth expanding
across the Southern/Central Plains and into the Midwest this weekend.
Temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s could rival high temperature
records over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley on Saturday and
Sunday. Warm, dry and windy conditions this weekend will promote fire
weather in the Southwest and Southern Plains, where Critical Fire Weather
Outlooks were issued by the Storm Prediction Center. Conversely, mean
troughing in the West will contribute to below average high temperatures
on the order of 15-25 degrees below average over much of California and
the Great Basin this weekend. The cold air will support heavy snowfall
potential over the highest elevations of the Sierra Nevada on Saturday.
Temperatures in the East will begin to warm up this weekend before a deep
upper trough dips southward out of eastern Canada and drops temperatures
again from the Northeast to Mid-Atlantic beginning early next week.

Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)

Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4.  An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.

Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.

Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1)	Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2)	Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays)
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/	https://www.cpc.ncep   .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/	https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/

Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.

6 – 10
8 – 14
3 – 4

HAZARDS OUTLOOKS

Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays.  Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report.  So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.

 

Daily Agricultural Weather Highlights can be found HERE

Month to Date Information

Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png

Precipitation month to date can be found at  https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png

World Forecast

Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6  forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE

World Temperature Anomalies

World Accumulated Precipitation

 

This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.

Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)

This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here  Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.

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I hope you found this article interesting and useful.

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