Updated at 4:30 p.m. Thursday May 4, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Thu May 04 2023Valid 00Z Fri May 05 2023 – 00Z Sun May 07 2023
…Threat of severe thunderstorms over the southern Plains through tonight
followed by heavy rain and threat of flash flooding across the Tennessee
Valley on Friday……Unsettled weather expanding into the Pacific Northwest will promote
snowmelt and flooding across the interior sections while rain and some
thunderstorms expand up the northern Plains……Cool afternoons across the western U.S. and the Mid-Atlantic will be
contrasted with highs into the low 90s in the central Plains by Saturday…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
Recent;y, we published the NOAA Updated Outlook for May, 2023. You can access it HERE. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
Over the next couple of days, much of the active weather will be found
across the mid-section of the country, gradually shifting eastward into
the southeastern U.S. while unsettled weather will persist across the
Northwest and the northern Plains. This is in response to a slow-moving
upper trough interacting with a couple of slow-moving frontal boundaries.
The frontal boundary currently across the southern Plains will be
responsible for a threat of severe thunderstorms over the southern Plains
through tonight as it lifts ever so slowly northeastward. By Friday, the
thunderstorms are forecast to reach into the lower to mid-Mississippi
Valley as a low pressure wave develops on the front over the central
Plains. Heavy rain will likely expand eastward across the mid-Mississippi
Valley into the Tennessee Valley Friday and Friday night ahead of the low
pressure wave where the heavy rain may lead to flash flooding. By
Saturday, the threat of heavy rain should decrease as the rain continues
its eastward movement into the Carolinas. Meanwhile, thunderstorm
clusters are forecast to organize across the lower Mississippi Valley
behind the warm front, and over central Texas ahead of a dry line.Meanwhile, unsettled weather will continue expanding into the Pacific
Northwest under moist southwesterly flow ahead of the western U.S. upper
trough. The moisture will interact with a stationary front near the
northern slopes of the northern Rockies. The heaviest rains are forecast
across the lower to mid elevations of the interior mountains across Idaho
and portions of nearby states tonight into early Friday where snowmelt
will promote flooding across the region. Wet snow will be confined to the
highest elevation as well as across northwestern Wyoming. For the rest of
Friday into early Saturday, the focus of moderate to locally heavy rain
will shift northeastward from the northern Rockies into the northern High
Plains while moderate to locally heavy rain and some thunderstorms expand
up the northern Plains as the stationary front lifts northward as a warm
front. Much of the Northwest and into northern California will see
unsettled weather continuing into the weekend.Temperature-wise, cool afternoons will prevail across the western U.S.
under the upper trough as well as the Mid-Atlantic behind another upper
trough. In contrast, an upper ridge is forecast to build across the
mid-section of the country where high temperatures are forecast to reach
into the low 90s by Saturday.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6
– 10
|
|
|
| 8
– 14 |
|
|
| 3
– 4 |
|
|
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
–
| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
–
