Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
344 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2023Valid 00Z Sun Apr 30 2023 – 00Z Tue May 02 2023
…Heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms possible across the East Coast
through Sunday……Locally significant and long-duration snowfall event forecast across
the U.P. of Michigan and northern Wisconsin through early next week……Below average temperatures to enter the West Coast and much of the
Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast; while much warmer temperatures
spread throughout the Intermountain West, northern Rockies, and northern
High Plains…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
Recent;y, we published the NOAA Seasonal Outlook which I call a Four-Season Outlook. You can access it HERE. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
A wet, cool, and stormy weather pattern is set to impact much of the
Eastern U.S. through at least the beginning of next week, with the main
impacts being associated with an ongoing and rapidly developing storm
system swinging up the East Coast this weekend. A deep upper-level low
currently centered above the Upper Midwest combined with a strengthening
surface low pressure system near the central Gulf Coast are the main
pieces forecast to interact and lead to severe thunderstorm and heavy
rainfall chances through Sunday. Widespread shower and thunderstorm
activity across the Southeast through tonight could produce locally heavy
rain and severe thunderstorms, particularly across Florida and southern
Georgia. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are
possible. As the low pressure system tracks into the Carolinas on Sunday
and strengthens, shower and thunderstorms should spread north into much of
the Mid-Atlantic. The greatest severe weather threat is expected across
eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia on Sunday, as well as across
southern Florida along an attached cold front. Additionally, heavy rain
may lead to scattered flash flooding into the northern Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast through Sunday night. Two areas have been highlighted as having
the highest chances for flooding concerns and fall with a Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall. The first area of concern includes much
of central Pennsylvania and the southern tier of New York, with the second
area across New Hampshire and southern Maine. The latest forecast for this
region calls for widespread 2 to 3 inches of rain, with locally higher
amounts possible.On the cold side of this system throughout the Upper Great Lakes and Upper
Midwest, winter weather will continue into the start of May. Very strong
and cold northerly winds on the west side of a deep, mostly stationary
surface low over the Great Lakes will combine with subfreezing air aloft
to produce potentially heavy snowfall downwind of Lake Superior across the
western U.P. of Michigan and northern Wisconsin through early next week.
The long duration snowfall event could yield up to 2 feet of snow by
Tuesday.Elsewhere, a system approaching the West Coast on Sunday will usher in
much cooler weather to the immediate West Coast before below average
temperatures spread into much of California by the beginning of the week.
Scattered showers, thunderstorms, and high elevation snow are also
possible into the West and northern/central Rockies on Monday and Tuesday.
Meanwhile, well above average and potentially record-breaking warmth will
shift into the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. Lower elevations
could see high temperatures into the mid-80s, while low 100s spread into
the Desert Southwest. Continued river flooding due to snowmelt is expected
to continue across much of the mountainous western United States. For the
Eastern U.S., unsettled weather will lead to widespread below average
temperatures, with the core of the chilly conditions situated over the
Great Lakes, Northeast, and Ohio Valley. Highs in this region through
Tuesday will struggle to reach above the 40s and 50s.Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
6 –
10
8 –
14
3 –
4
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
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I hope you found this article interesting and useful. –
