Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
348 PM EDT Fri Apr 28 2023Valid 00Z Sat Apr 29 2023 – 00Z Mon May 01 2023
…Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will lead to increased
heavy rainfall chances across Eastern Seaboard and Gulf Coast through
Sunday……Severe thunderstorms possible in eastern Texas on Friday ahead of
advancing cold front……Warm and dry conditions expected this weekend west of the Continental
Divide; Critical Fire Weather over the Southwest Today…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
Recent;y, we published the NOAA Seasonal Outlook which I call a Four-Season Outlook. You can access it HERE. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
The forecast remains on track for deepening upper-troughing to maintain a
cool and unsettled pattern across the eastern quadrant of the Lower 48 as
we go into May, with multiple rounds of heavy rainfall expected through
Sunday morning. An initial bout of isolated urban flash flooding remains
possible today across the D.C and Baltimore urban corridor today as a slow
moving storm system causes steady rainfall with pockets of excessive
rainfall rates. Conditions will generally improve from south to north with
the bulk of the precipitation becoming lighter by Saturday morning across
portions of the Northeast and southern New England. After a brief lull in
the rain tomorrow, the next focused round of showers and thunderstorms
looks to arrive across the Eastern Seaboard Sunday as two deep frontal
systems begin to merge over the Northeast later Sunday. Additional
instances of isolated to scattered flash flooding are possible across the
Mid-Atlantic into New England, with rainfall totals forecast in the 1-3″
range. Rainfall aside, expect the persistent upper-troughing pattern to
yield cooler than average high temperatures across the eastern half of the
Lower 48 this weekend, especially across the Upper-Midwest into the Ohio
Valley.Meanwhile, severe weather and some heavy rainfall are a concern today
across portions of the Southern Plains as southerly flow brings an influx
of unstable air ahead of an intersecting cold front and dryline.
Accordingly, the Storm Prediction Center maintains an Enhanced Risk of
severe thunderstorms for much of eastern Texas, with large population
centers including the Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio, and Austin metro
areas under the risk of damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes today.
The eventual merger of these storms later today could also support
isolated flash flooding along the I-35 corridor in Texas given recent
heavy rainfall in the area. By later tonight, a forming surface low will
push offshore into the Gulf of Mexico, refocusing heavy rainfall chances
south and east across portions of the immediate Gulf Coast as warm, moist
air streams northward behind a lifting warm front. Multiple rounds of
potentially heavy rainfall are expected from early Saturday into the
evening hours, leading to a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall being issued
for the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama, and southern Georgia, as
a broad area of 1-2 inch rainfall totals, and hourly rainfall rates
approaching 2″/hr are possible. Severe thunderstorms are possible across
much of Florida, with damaging winds and a few tornadoes being the primary
threats.Elsewhere, conditions will be pleasant and tranquil this weekend across
the West Coast, as persistent upper-level ridging keeps temperatures 15-25
degrees above normal for areas west of the Continental Divide. Widespread
high temperatures in the 80s are expected throughout interior sections of
the Pacific Northwest, while locations further south, including
California’s Central Valley and the Mojave/Sonoran deserts, reach the 90s
and even 100s in localized areas. In fact, a few locations along the West
Coast and Southwest could challenge their daily high temperature records
this weekend. The warm and dry conditions will combine with gusty winds to
support a Critical fire weather risk today across southeast Arizona and
southwest New Mexico, with Elevated fire weather conditions forecast
tomorrow across portions of the Central Plains.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6
– 10
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| 8
– 14 |
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| 3
– 4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Month to Date Information
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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