Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
357 PM EDT Thu Apr 27 2023Valid 00Z Fri Apr 28 2023 – 00Z Sun Apr 30 2023
…More rounds of heavy rain and severe weather are expected to impact the
southeastern quadrant of the U.S. through late week ……Another quick round of wet snow should spread from the northern to
central Rockies through tonight/early Friday……A warming trend across the West could break temperature records by
Friday while below average temperatures are forecast for large portions of
the U.S. from the Rockies eastward…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
Recent;y, we published the NOAA Seasonal Outlook which I call a Four-Season Outlook. You can access it HERE. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
An active and complicated weather pattern is forecast to bring inclement
weather to various locations across the eastern two-thirds of the country
through the next couple of days. One system of note will be a low pressure
system and multiple fronts combining with Gulf of Mexico energy to produce
widespread showers and thunderstorms across the Southeast this evening,
spreading into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys and the Mid-Atlantic tonight
into Friday and eventually into the Northeast by Saturday as the low lifts
northeast. For the remainder of the day into tonight, the Storm Prediction
Center is indicating Slight Risk areas of severe storms possible across
parts of the Gulf Coast, farther north into the Mid-South, and the
Atlantic Coast of Florida (the latter due to sea breeze convection). The
relatively higher likelihood of tornadoes is across the central Gulf
Coast, which coincidentally is also most likely to see instances of flash
flooding, per WPC’s Slight Risk of excessive rainfall. As the low moves
northeast, Friday there are Marginal Risks of both severe weather (across
the southern half of the Eastern Seaboard) and for flash flooding (across
the Mid-Atlantic), with heavy rain and isolated flash flooding shifting
into the Northeast Saturday as areas farther southwest dry out behind the
system.Meanwhile, a low pressure system diving across the northern High Plains
will produce a variety of weather as it presses south and east into the
mid-section of the country. Higher elevation wet snow of 6-12 inches is
once again possible as cool air is ushered in and lifted behind a cold
front across the northern Rockies today, reaching into the central Rockies
with 6+ inches of wet snow tonight/early Friday. Winter Weather Advisories
and a couple of Winter Storm Warnings are in place for this activity. Then
as the upper-level energy and frontal systems dive into the south-central
U.S., strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to develop in the southern
Plains–central to eastern parts of Texas in particular. Large hail is
likely while tornadoes and high straight-line winds are also threats, as
well as a few instances of flash flooding in areas with high rain rates.
By Saturday, heavy rain and storms are forecast to spread across the Gulf
Coast region once again. Behind these systems, the Storm Prediction Center
indicates Elevated to Critical Risks of fire danger are expected across
parts of the Southwest this evening and on Friday.A strengthening upper-level ridge across the West through late week will
lead to warming of temperatures across the region. Above average
temperatures should be most notable across the West Coast states, where
several record high maximum/minimum temperatures could be tied or set on
Friday and Saturday, with temperatures around 15-25 degrees above normal.
Temperatures in the Desert Southwest could exceed 100F, slightly warmer
than usual for this time of year. But from the Rockies eastward into the
central U.S., temperatures will generally be below normal. The greatest
anomalies should be across the southern High Plains on Friday where highs
should stay in the 50s. Relatively cool conditions in the 60s and 70s will
progress into the south-central U.S. on Saturday. Farther north, cooler
than normal conditions and a couple of low pressure systems could support
mixed rain/snow across parts of the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6
– 10
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| 8
– 14 |
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| 3
– 4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Month to Date Information
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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