Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 PM EDT Wed Apr 26 2023Valid 00Z Thu Apr 27 2023 – 00Z Sat Apr 29 2023
…Heavy rain and severe weather in the Southern Plains through tonight
should push east Thursday-Friday……Severe weather with potentially large hail could occur across the
Florida Peninsula through this evening……Heavy wet snow over portions of the Rockies is tapering off, but more
wet snow is expected by Thursday……Warming temperatures across the West could break records by Friday
while below average temperatures are forecast for large portions of the
U.S. from the Rockies eastward…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
Recent;y, we published the NOAA Seasonal Outlook which I call a Four-Season Outlook. You can access it HERE. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across southern parts of the Plains
in the vicinity of a couple low pressure/frontal systems. Additional
severe storms are likely especially across northeastern parts of Texas,
where the Storm Prediction Center has Slight to Enhanced Risks of severe
weather delineated for tornado, large hail, and strong wind potential.
Additionally, more instances of potentially large hail are possible across
the Florida Peninsula where strong thunderstorms develop due to sea breeze
boundaries and upper-level energy supporting storm formation and
strengthening. Isolated tornadoes and gusty winds could also occur in
Florida, and isolated flash flooding cannot be ruled out either,
particularly in the urban corridor.As the low pressure system lifts east/northeast across the Lower
Mississippi Valley Thursday and into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys by Friday,
rain and thunderstorms will spread into those areas. On Thursday,
organized thunderstorms could produce severe weather and flash flooding
across portions of the Gulf Coast, where Slight Risks of both severe
weather and excessive rainfall are in place given plenty of moisture and
energy for storms. Showers and thunderstorms are also possible farther
inland across the southeastern quadrant of the U.S. with some lower
potential for strong storms and runoff/flooding. On the drier backside of
the low pressure system, Elevated Risks of fire danger are in place for
portions of New Mexico and western Texas this evening and into Thursday.
By Friday, rain and storms are likely to spread into the Tennessee/Ohio
Valleys and Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic toward the Southeast Atlantic Coast
given the surface low pressure system’s movement.Farther north, a low pressure system diving into the northern High Plains
tonight will produce a variety of weather as it presses south and east.
After a round of snow is winding down in especially the Colorado Rockies
today, higher elevation wet snow up to around 6-8 inches in Colorado will
once again be possible in the cooled air behind the low’s cold front,
shifting from northern parts of the Rockies to central/southern parts
Thursday and Friday, with some light snow perhaps extending into the Front
Range. Meanwhile, storms farther east could be strong to severe for parts
of the Central Plains Thursday, when a Marginal Risk of severe weather is
in place. Severe potential rises to a Slight Risk in Texas as the
front/low dip farther south by Friday, and the fire weather risk could
rise to Critical for portions of southeastern Arizona and southwestern New
Mexico where gusty winds occur in low dewpoints on the dry side of a
dryline.A developing upper-level ridge across the West through late week will lead
to gradual warming of temperatures there. Above average temperatures
should be most notable across the West Coast states, where a few record
high maximum/minimum temperatures could be tied or set Thursday with
increasing numbers of potential records by Friday. Temperatures in the
Desert Southwest could exceed 100F, slightly warmer than usual for this
time of year. But from the Rockies eastward, temperatures will generally
be below normal for many areas through late week. Freeze Warnings and
Frost Advisories are in place across parts of the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes
region for a chilly Thursday morning.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6
– 10
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| 8
– 14 |
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| 3
– 4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Month to Date Information
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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