Updated at 4:05 p.m. Wednesday, April 12. 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 PM EDT Wed Apr 12 2023Valid 00Z Thu Apr 13 2023 – 00Z Sat Apr 15 2023
…Widespread showers and storms with locally heavy rainfall to expand
across the Southeast……Heavy snow possible across parts of the Intermountain West and
central/northern Rockies through Friday……Threat of severe thunderstorms enter the central/southern Plains by the
end of the week……Record-breaking warmth continues across much of the Great Lakes and
Northeast…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
Last night we published the Updated Outlook for the month of April. You can access it HERE. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. I try to keep the below three maps updated. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. I will be doing the updating during the period described in the title of the article but if you happen to read this article later, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
A slowly lifting warm front stretching from southern Florida to the Gulf
of Mexico along with a developing surface low pressure system lifting
northward to the central Gulf Coast is expected to continue producing
unsettled weather throughout much of the Southeast into Thursday and
Friday. Initially, heavy rainfall is expected to continue over southern
Florida through early this evening along/north of the lifting warm front.
Several additional inches of rain could lead to scattered flash/urban
flooding concerns. The flooding threat is primarily confined to the Gold
Coast/Miami metro area. Into tonight and early Thursday, gusty winds and
heavy rain are expected to progress northward into the central Gulf Coast
associated with the lifting surface low and nearby upper-level closed low
anchored over Louisiana. Ample moisture and scattered thunderstorm
activity is anticipated to spread northward through the Southeast and
western/central Gulf Coast, with isolated chances for flash flooding. By
Friday, the unsettled weather is most likely to swing eastward along the
lifting warm front and into the Carolinas, where additional isolated
chances for flash flooding exist.Farther west, a sharp upper-level trough over the Northwest and developing
storm system over the central High Plains will lead to potentially heavy
snow throughout much of the Intermountain West and northern/central
Rockies. The heaviest snow is forecast to occur tonight and Thursday
across southwest Montana and the Yellowstone region of northwest Wyoming.
Here, over a foot of snow is likely in the higher elevations, with several
inches of snow possible in the lower elevations. Heavy snow along and
behind a cold front may also develop across the western Colorado Rockies
on Friday, where up to a foot of snow is possible across the highest
mountain peaks. As this system ejects into the Great Plains, a
well-defined dry line across the central/southern Plains should aid in
clusters of thunderstorms developing and pushing eastward Friday evening.
The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted an area from southeast Kansas
to north-central Texas as having a Slight Risk (level 2/5) for severe
thunderstorms. Scattered showers to the north across the northern Plains
will have the potential to exacerbate flooding concerns from North Dakota
to the Upper Great Lakes when combined with a melting snowpack.Meanwhile, well-above average to record-breakingly warm temperatures are
forecast to continue from the Midwest throughout the Great Lakes and into
the Northeast over the next few days. Warm air flowing around an anomalous
upper-level ridge over the eastern half of the Nation will allow for the
summer-like warmth and widespread highs into the 70s and 80s. Several
daily high temperature records are forecast on Thursday from Wisconsin to
southern New England. Additionally, dry vegetation , low relative
humidity, and gusty winds may lead to critical fire weather on Thursday
from the southern High Plains to the Midwest.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6
– 10
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| 8
– 14 |
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| 3
– 4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Month to Date Information
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the 5-Day forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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