Updated at 7:02 p.m. EDT April 3, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
355 PM EDT Mon Apr 03 2023Valid 00Z Tue Apr 04 2023 – 00Z Thu Apr 06 2023
…Heavy snow over parts of the Northern/Central Plains…
…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southeast on Monday evening and a Moderate Risk of Severe thunderstorms
over parts of the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday……There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Western
Gulf Coast, Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys on
Wednesday……There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio
Valley and the Great Lakes on Wednesday…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
Last night we published the Updated Outlook for the month of April. You can access it HERE. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. I try to keep the below three maps updated. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. I will be doing the updating during the period described in the title of the article but if you happen to read this article later, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
On Monday, a developing area of low pressure will deepen over the Central
Rockies and move northeastward to the Upper Mississippi Valley by
Wednesday morning and then into southwestern Ontario, Canada, by Wednesday
evening.The low pressure will create a major winter storm producing over a foot of
snow from the Central Rockies to the Northern Plains, challenging some
April snow records in the Dakotas and northwest Minnesota. The highest
totals could locally exceed 24 inches. Avalanches and significant impacts
from snow load are possible across portions of Utah. Furthermore, the
system will create strong winds and heavy snow resulting in whiteout
conditions and significant drifting snow Tuesday and Wednesday, causing
dangerous to impossible driving conditions and considerable disruption to
daily life.Additionally, the storm will produce wind chills near or below zero during
the blizzard conditions in the Northern Plains, which could be
life-threatening to anyone stranded outside. Moreover, the system will
produce widespread gusts in excess of 50 MPH over the Southwest and Four
Corners on Monday evening, to the Plains Tuesday, and Upper Midwest
Wednesday. As a result, power outages, wind damage, and blowing dust, even
outside of thunderstorm activity, are likely.Meanwhile, a warm front over the Southeast will produce showers and severe
thunderstorms over the region on Monday evening. Therefore, the SPC has
issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southeast
through Tuesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms
are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.On Tuesday, as the associated front moves onto the Plains, showers and
severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Plains and Mississippi
Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Moderate Risk of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley from
Tuesday into Wednesday morning. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
hail, and a few tornadoes. Furthermore, there will be an increased threat
of EF2-EF5 tornadoes and hail two-inch or greater over parts of the
Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and adjacent parts of the Central/Southern
Plains.On Wednesday, the front continues to move eastward to the Mississippi
Valley, creating more showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk
of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on
Wednesday. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.Moreover, showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain will develop along the
southern portion of the front from parts of the Ohio Valley to the Lower
Mississippi Valley/Western Gulf Coast. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of Ohio/Tennessee Valley and
the Lower Mississippi Valley/Western Gulf Coast on Wednesday. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.In the meantime, need to include the West Coast, weak onshore flow will
create coastal rain and higher-elevation snow over the Pacific Northwest
and Northern California on Monday evening through Wednesday, when the
precipitation will be off and on. Additionally, snow will develop over
parts of the Northern Intermountain Region/Northern Rockies and Great
Basin through late Tuesday evening. On Wednesday, snow will continue over
the Northern/Central Rockies.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6
– 10
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| 8
– 14 |
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| 3
– 4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Month to Date Information
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the 5-Day forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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