Updated at 3:45 pm. Friday, March 10, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
159 PM EST Fri Mar 10 2023Valid 00Z Sat Mar 11 2023 – 00Z Mon Mar 13 2023
…A heightened risk of excessive rainfall continues for Southern
California Friday night and renews across Central and Northern California
Saturday night into Sunday……Winter Storm/Blizzard Potential for the Northern Plains from Friday
evening through this weekend……There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday……An elevated risk of excessive rainfall exists in and near the Mid-South
Saturday into Saturday night…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
We also just published the new ENSO Advisory Update which can be accessed here. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. I try to keep the below three maps updated. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. I will be doing the updating during the period described in the title of the article but if you happen to read this article later, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
Flooding and flash flooding across central California and Nevada should be
easing late Friday afternoon and evening as precipitation intensity
lessens as the related storm system moves into the Intermountain West and
the atmospheric river shifts away from the area. However, Southern
California should see elevated flood/flash flood issues persist Friday
night into early Saturday as the atmospheric river slows down its forward
progression and slowly weakens. The excessive rainfall/rapid onset
flooding risk is expected to elevate again for portions of central and
northern California Saturday night into Sunday as a moderately strong
atmospheric river and warm front move into the region. Heavy wet snow
will occur at higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada into Sunday, shifting
from south to north with time associated with both moisture plumes. The
snow will lead to difficult travel and combined with an already deep
snowpack, may lead to increasing impacts from the depth and weight of the
snow. For areas near the northern Great Basin and Northern Rockies, there
is the potential for convective snow showers and snow squalls Friday
evening/night, which could lead to whiteout conditions and slick roads.As the initial storm moves out of the Intermountain West onto the Plains,
it will split into two pieces. Within its southern portion, an area of
showers and severe thunderstorms will develop near a new area of low
pressure over parts of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley
and organize into a progressive line. The Storm Prediction Center has
issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern
Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley from Saturday into Sunday morning. The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Despite the potential
for a progressive squall line, soils are saturated across portions of the
Mid-South, which lends itself to an elevated excessive rainfall risk.
Excessive rainfall concerns should become more isolated as the activity
moves through the Southeast on Sunday.Meanwhile, within its northern portion, the initial low pressure area
emerging from the Northern Rockies and then moving through the Northern
Plains into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes will help spur a winter storm
which will generate periods of heavy snow across portions of northeast
Montana, North Dakota, and into Minnesota and Wisconsin starting Friday
evening and continuing through this weekend. When combined with strong,
gusty winds, blizzard conditions are anticipated across portions of North
Dakota. Scattered power outages are possible. Snow-covered roads and
reduced visibility will make travel difficult across impacted areas.A complex low pressure system will move eastward off the northern
Mid-Atlantic Coast by Saturday morning and strengthen as it moves out of
sea. As the storm moves east, several inches of snow are expected across
West Virginia and southern New York Friday night into Saturday, which
could cause some travel impacts and disruptions.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6
– 10
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| 8
– 14 |
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| 3
– 4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Month to Date Information
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the 5-Day forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.-
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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