Updated at 3:08 p.m. Friday, March 3, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST Fri Mar 03 2023Valid 00Z Sat Mar 04 2023 – 00Z Mon Mar 06 2023
…Strong storm system to bring heavy snow to interior portions of the
Northeast along with sleet and freezing rain just south of the heaviest
snow tonight ……Above-average temperatures return to most locations east of the Rocky
Mountains for the weekend while the West remains cold and unsettled……Severe thunderstorm and flash flood threats to wind down tonight for
the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
To read the new NOAA March Update Click HERE . Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. I try to keep the below three maps updated. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. I will be doing the updating during the period described in the title of the article but if you happen to read this article later, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast (It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
A strong area of low pressure over the Ohio Valley this afternoon has been
associated with widespread heavy rain and flooding from the southern
Plains into the Ohio Valley along with severe thunderstorms across many of
these same locations into the Tennessee Valley. As the surface low tracks
northeastward tonight, the remaining flash flood and severe weather
threats will begin to wind down as the associated cold front reaches the
East coast. However, areas of heavy snow will spread into southeastern
Lower Michigan and interior sections of the Northeast as the system
advances tonight. A mixture of sleet and freezing rain will mix in across
central New York and Pennsylvania into southern New England. Areas of
heavy snow with rates of at least 1 to 2 inches per hour at times will
significantly impact travel across portions of the Midwest into New York
and New England. Parts of northern Upstate New York into central New
England could see over a foot of snow before the storm exits Saturday
afternoon. Increasing wind gusts up to 45 mph will also accompany this
system which may down trees and generate power outages.In the wake of the strong storm exiting the East Coast on Saturday,
conditions across the middle of the nation will see fairly pleasant
weather with temperatures warming above average through the weekend. For
Sunday, high temperatures across the central to southern Plains are
expected to range 10 to 20 degrees above average and closer to 10 degrees
above average for the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast.These warm temperatures in the central/eastern portion of the lower 48
will be in contrast to the western U.S. where high temperatures on
Saturday and Sunday will be roughly 10 to 20 degrees below average. An
upper level trough is forecast to settle along the West Coast carrying a
number of upper level impulses into the West Coast. Snow levels will be
lower than average for many locations from Oregon into northern California
and the Sierra Nevada is expected to see over 2 feet of new snowfall
through Sunday evening. Snow for interior portions of the western U.S. can
also be expected with relatively light accumulations except for the
mountains which could see locally heavy snowfall accumulations.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6
– 10
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| 8
– 14 |
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| 3
– 4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Month to Date Information
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the 5-Day forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.-
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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