Updated at 3:24 p.m. EST Monday February 27, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
249 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2023Valid 00Z Tue Feb 28 2023 – 00Z Thu Mar 02 2023
…Heavy snow to impact parts of the Northeast tonight into Tuesday…
…Several rounds of heavy snow and strong winds to create extremely
dangerous travel conditions across the Sierra Nevada……Swath of moderate to locally heavy snow possible across the northern
Plains Tuesday through Wednesday morning……Threat of excessive rainfall increases over portions of the Tennessee
Valley on Wednesday…
Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
To read the new NOAA Four-Season Outlook Click HERE . Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. I try to keep the below three maps updated. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. I will be doing the updating during the period described in the title of the article but if you happen to read this article later, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast (It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
A busy weather pattern is expected to continue through midweek with
impacts throughout many different regions of the country. Starting off in
the Northeast, a system lifting through the Great Lakes this afternoon is
forecast to spread wintry precipiation into the Northeast and southern New
England tonight before further spreading into northern New England on
Tuesday. Cold air is forecast to remain locked in place across this region
as a secondary low pressure system forms off the Mid-Atlantic coastline
early Tuesday and slides eastward. Snowfall totals are generally expected
to add up to around 4-8″ throughout New England and the Interior
Northeast. Higher amounts are possible across the more highly elevated
mountainous regions. Otherwise, New York City will be on the southern edge
of the heaviest snowfall and could mix with sleet at times, limiting
snowfall amounts to the 2-6″ range, but still likely the biggest snowstorm
of the season. Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories are in
effect from central PA (where light freezing rain is also possible)
through coastal Maine.For the West Coast, the cold and wintry pattern continues with two more
rounds of heavy snow forecast to enter the Sierra Nevada and northern
California over the next few days. Additional snowfall of 4-7 feet are
expected along the Sierra, with snowfall rates in excess of 2″ per hour.
Combined with strong wind gusts up to 60 mph, blizzard conditions are also
anticipated through at least early Wednesday. Travel will become very
dangerous to impossible at times through the Sierra mountain passes. Heavy
mountain snow will also spread across the Intermountain West, Southwest,
and central/southern Rockies during this time period. Snowfall amounts
over a foot are likely throughout the higher mountain ranges, which will
lead to potentially hazardous weather in these regions as well.The final area of potentially impactful winter weather is forecast to
occur between the Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning hours across the
northern Plains along a narrow swath of moderate to locally heavy snow. A
low pressure system swinging from the northern Rockies to the Dakotas will
work in tandem with a draped stationary front and cold airmass to create
the possibility of heavy snow. The heaviest amounts are currently forecast
along the North Dakota-South Dakota border, which could locally reach up
to 8 inches.By Wednesday, a strong storm system is forecast to begin ejecting out of
the Southwest while moisture surges out of the Gulf of Mexico toward a
lingering frontal boundary over the Mid-South. This will create an
environment conducive for heavy rainfall across the Tennessee Valley. A
few scattered flash floods are possible where the heaviest rain rates
occur, especially over much of Tennessee.The temperature outlook through the first day of March will feature
springlike warmth from the southern Plains and Gulf Coast through the
Lower Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic. Highs into the 60s and 70s are likely,
with 80s for the Gulf Coast States. This is also likely to break numerous
daily high temperature records, especially on Wednesday. Conversely, the
West is likely to experience much colder weather, with temperatures as low
as 30 degrees below average. Many of the daily record low temperatures
forecast extend from western Oregon to much of California.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
6
– 10
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8
– 14 |
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3
– 4 |
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Month to Date Information
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the 5-Day forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.-
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I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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