Updated at 3:52 p.m. EST Wednesday, February 15, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
317 PM EST Wed Feb 15 2023Valid 00Z Thu Feb 16 2023 – 00Z Sat Feb 18 2023
…A swath of snow is forecast to stretch from the Four Corners to the
lower Great Lakes through early Friday as a low pressure system tracks
rapidly across the central part of the country……Strong to severe thunderstorms and areas of heavy rainfall will impact
portions of the Arklatex/Lower Mississippi Valley across the Mid-South and
into the Tennessee/Ohio Valley tonight through early Friday……Critical Fire Weather for the TX Big Bend…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
To read the Updated ENSO Outlook, Click HERE There are two very interesting articles on ENSO in that article that you can click on. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. I try to keep the below three maps updated. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. I will be doing the updating during the period described in the title of the article but if you happen to read this article later, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast (It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
A potent upper-level low will propagate from the Southwest to the East
while phasing with a northern stream trough over the next couple of days.
This upper energy will support the development of a dynamic surface low
pressures system over the Southern Plains tonight. This system will likely
spread a swath of 4-8″ of snow across portions of the Central Plains
through the Middle Mississippi Valley and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on
Thursday.Meanwhile, strong to severe thunderstorms will likely spread from the
Southern Plains to the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valley tonight. A
slight risk with an embedded enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms is in
effect for the aforementioned areas. Large to very large hail are possible
over parts of north Texas and southern Oklahoma this evening. Tornadoes,
damaging winds and isolated hail will also develop overnight over the
Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South. The severe weather and excessive
rainfall threat shift into the Southeast, Ohio/Tennessee Valley on
Thursday while the different streams of upper-level energy phase with one
another and intensify. Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will focus along a
cold front, producing heavy rainfall over portions of eastern Tennessee,
northern Alabama and southeastern Kentucky. A broad slight with embedded
enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms extends from the Ohio Valley down to
central Gulf Coast on Thursday due to the likelihood of widely scattered
severe thunderstorms developing across the region. Several tornadoes are
possible over Mississippi and Alabama, including the risk for isolated
strong tornadoes. Things quiet down across the CONUS on Friday.Broad scale warming will continue across much of the eastern half of the
country through Thursday while the deepening upstream system promotes warm
air advection into the region. Temperatures are likely to be 20-40 degrees
above average through as late as Friday morning when a cold front will
sweep through the East Coast. High pressure builds in the West and
provides anomalous cold across the region and behind the aforementioned
cold front. Critical fire weather is expected over portions of Texas’ Big
Bend region where dry and windy conditions will support fires.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6
– 10
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| 8
– 14 |
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| 3
– 4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Month to Date Information
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the 5-Day forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.-
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
