Updated at 12:45 pm EST Thursday February 9, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. This article also includes World weather forecasts.
It also includes links for longer-term outlooks and sometimes (like today) we show the maps that one finds if one clicks on those links. But we can not update all of those maps each day so look at the date and the duration of the period of time involved. If you want a more up-to-date map, click on the provided link which may be located in a table of links. If the date in the title of the article is not today’s date. just go to Econcurrents.com and look for today’s weather article.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
207 PM EST Thu Feb 09 2023Valid 00Z Fri Feb 10 2023 – 00Z Sun Feb 12 2023
…An active pattern with three well defined storms affecting the Lower
48……Heavy snows possible across portions of Northern New England Thursday
night into Friday……Record high minimum temperatures possible Friday morning across much of
the east coast from Florida to New England……Heavy rains possible across the Central Gulf coast into the Southeast…
Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. I try to keep the below three maps updated. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. I will be doing the updating during the period described in the title of the article but if you happen to read this article later, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast (It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
A series of strong storm systems expected to affect the lower 48 over the
next few days. The lead storm, currently producing locally heavy snows
over portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley Thursday afternoon will be
moving across the Great Lakes this evening and into southeast Canada
tonight into Friday. Heavy snows are possible to the north and northeast
of this storm, bringing accumulations of 6 to 10 inches across portions of
central to northern Maine Thursday night into Friday. Winter storm
warnings and advisories are currently in effect across these areas.To the south of the area of potential heavy snows, much above average
temperatures will stretch along the entire east coast. There is the
potential for numerous record high minimum temperature Friday morning
along the east coast from Florida to New England and record high afternoon
temperatures Friday across central Florida and from the New York City area
to Boston. Cooler temperatures expected along much of the eastern
seaboard this weekend, but with the overall mid to upper level flow west
to east across the lower 48, arctic air will remain absent and a return to
much above average temperatures likely by early next week.The second well defined strong storm system will be associated with a
closing off mid to upper level low across the Southern Plains tonight into
Friday. Precipitation amounts initially expected to be light across
portions of the Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley as this
system will be relatively moisture starved. However, as this closed low
moves toward the Lower Mississippi Valley on Friday, moist low level flow
will strengthen out of southwest and south off the central to eastern Gulf
of Mexico. This will support an increasing area of heavy rains from the
central Gulf coast, northeastward across the Florida Panhandle, much of
Alabama, northern Mississippi, much of Georgia, western North Carolina and
eastern Tennessee. Much of this region has seen average to below average
precipitation amount over the past few weeks. This should mitigate the
flash flood potential across these areas where precipitations amounts of 1
to 2 inches are possible.The third strong storm system to affect the lower 48 will be moving from
northern California late Friday, south into central California during
Saturday. The track of this deepening mid to upper level closed low will
not be conducive to significant precipitation across California over the
next few days. Moisture values will remain at or below seasonal averages,
with no potential for an atmospheric river to develop as occurred earlier
in the year. Subsequently, only light to locally moderate precipitation
amounts in the .10-.25″+ range expected across northern to central
California over the next two days.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
6
– 10
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8
– 14 |
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3
– 4 |
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Month to Date Information
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the 5-Day forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking h ere Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.-
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I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |