Summary Of the Markets Today:
- The Dow closed down 207 points or 0.61%,
- Nasdaq closed down 1.68%,
- S&P 500 closed down 1.11%,
- Gold $1887 up $1.90,
- WTI crude oil settled at $78 up $1.28,
- 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.638% down 0.038 points,
- USD $103.49 up $0.06,
- Bitcoin $22,840 down $366.35 – Session Low $22.720
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
Click here to read our Economic Forecast for February 2023
Today’s Economic Releases:
December 2022 sales of merchant wholesalers were up 7.3% (green line on the graph below) year-over-year. However, after the inflation adjustment – year-over-year sales were down 1.7% (red line on the graph below). Sales continue to worsen and should be considered a potential recession flag. The December inventories/sales ratio for merchant wholesalers was 1.36 (blue line on the graph below). The December 2021 ratio was 1.24. A rising ratio is could be a recession flag.
The federal budget deficit was $459 billion in the first four months of fiscal year 2023, the Congressional Budget Office estimates—$200 billion more than the shortfall recorded during the same period last year. Outlays were 9 percent higher and revenues were 3 percent lower from October through January than during the same period in fiscal year 2022. Outlays in fiscal year 2023 were reduced by the shifting of certain payments—totaling $63 billion—from October 1, 2022 (the first day of fiscal year 2023), into fiscal year 2022 because October 1 fell on a weekend. If not for those shifts, the deficit would have been $522 billion, double the shortfall during the same period in fiscal year 2022.
A summary of headlines we are reading today:
- Biden SOTU: Oil Demand Will Last For At Least A Decade
- Aluminum Price Outlook Remains Bearish
- Oil Retreats On EIA Inventory Data
- Alphabet shares fall 7% following Google’s A.I. event
- S&P 500 closes 1% lower, Nasdaq sheds 1.7% on Wednesday amid corporate profit worries
- Wholesale egg prices have ‘collapsed.’ Why consumers may soon see relief
- SpaceX prepares for a massive test this week: Firing all 33 Starship engines at once
- Watch: Bill Gates Says It’s OK For Him To Use Private Jets Because He’s “The Solution” To Climate Change
- Shrinking Money Supply Undercuts “Soft Landing” Narrative
- Bond Report: U.S. bond yields finish mostly lower as traders weigh disinflation and Fed’s need for higher rates
These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.
The Market in Perspective
Here are the headlines moving the markets. | |
What Is Sweden’s Role In The Defense Of The Baltic Sea?Sweden’s security dilemma has worsened in recent years due to Moscow’s increasingly aggressive behavior, as demonstrated by Russia’s invasion of Georgia in 2018, its invasion and annexation of Crimea in 2014, and its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The consequences of potential Russian expansion into the Baltic Sea region are particularly dire for Stockholm, given Sweden’s control over the strategically important island of Gotland situated in the heart of the Baltic Sea. Given this situation, Sweden’s… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/International/What-Is-Swedens-Role-In-The-Defense-Of-The-Baltic-Sea.html |
|
Biden SOTU: Oil Demand Will Last For At Least A DecadeIn a rather surprising comment during the State of the Union Speech Tuesday night, U.S. President Joe Biden admitted that the world would still need oil and gas “for at least another decade,” adding “and beyond that.” The acknowledgment surprised some followers and even elicited boos and hearty laughs from some in the crowd, although most in the oil and gas industry have long maintained that they will be needed for many years to come. Others in the oil and gas industry could consider his acknowledgment as going not far enough,… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Biden-SOTU-Oil-Demand-Will-Last-For-At-Least-A-Decade.html |
|
Aluminum Price Outlook Remains BearishVia AG Metal Miner Aluminum prices have stayed bearish in the short term. At the beginning of February, price action showed a short-term sideways trend, as no new lows or highs formed. This means prices need to break out of their current range to form a continuation trend or a downward reversal. Currently, however, future price direction remains unclear. Altogether, the Aluminum Monthly Metals Index (MMI) rose 1.18% from January to February. Russian Aluminum Heads to LME Months ago, MetalMiner analyzed the potential ramifications of a proposed… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Metals/Commodities/Aluminum-Price-Outlook-Remains-Bearish.html |
|
Which Countries Face The Most Geopolitical Risk?The Russia-Ukraine war highlighted how geopolitical risk can up-end supply chains and weaponize trade. More precisely, the war led to trade sanctions, a food crisis, and energy shortages. In this graphic from The Hinrich Foundation, the third in a five-part series on the sustainability of trade, Visual Capitalist’s Jenna Ross explores how geopolitical risk differs by economy. It pulls data from the 2022 Sustainable Trade Index, which The Hinrich Foundation produced in collaboration with the IMD World Competitiveness Center. Breaking Down Geopolitical… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/International/Which-Countries-Face-The-Most-Geopolitical-Risk.html |
|
Moscow Considering Windfall Tax to Cover Plunging Oil RevenuesMoscow is considering a one-time windfall tax on large corporations as a stop-gap measure for dangerously declining oil and gas revenues that have left the country with a $25-billion deficit. According to Russian state news agency RIA Novosti, Moscow is discussing a “voluntary”, one-off contribution from big businesses. Russian-language news outlet The Bell cited unnamed sources familiar with the discussions as saying that a proposal and counterproposal have been tabled so far. The first proposal comes from Russian Prime… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Moscow-Considering-Windfall-Tax-to-Cover-Plunging-Oil-Revenues.html |
|
Emerging Markets Aim To Capitalize On Shifting Semiconductor Supply ChainsAfter the US levied sweeping restrictions against China’s semiconductor manufacturing industry last autumn, opportunities are emerging for other countries to bolster their positions in the supply chain for this critical component of the global economy and linchpin of future technologies like artificial intelligence (AI) and next-generation computing. In October, the US Department of Commerce blocked the sale of semiconductors and chip-making equipment to China in a bid to slow its domestic industry. The executive order came two months after… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Emerging-Markets-Aim-To-Capitalize-On-Shifting-Semiconductor-Supply-Chains.html |
|
BP Declares Force Majeure On Azeri Crude Loadings From Turkey’s Ceyhan PortBP Azerbaijan has declared force majeure on loadings of Azeri crude from the Turkish port of Ceyhan following the devastating earthquake in southern Turkey and northern Syria earlier this week, the Azeri unit of the UK-based supermajor told Reuters on Wednesday. BP Azerbaijan has issued a notice to crude oil shippers after the oil terminal at Ceyhan halted operations on Monday in the wake of the earthquake, company spokeswoman Tamam Bayatly wrote in an email to Reuters. BP Azerbaijan is the operator of the sections of the Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan (BTC)… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/BP-Declares-Force-Majeure-On-Azeri-Crude-Loadings-From-Turkeys-Ceyhan-Port.html |
|
Why Pakistan Is Praying For Warm Weather In EuropePakistan, along with other developing nations, has experienced a flurry of crises since the pandemic. A vicious combination of fiscal, social, and energy issues has left the country in a very precarious position. With summer approaching, and Pakistan’s energy demand set to surge, a cold spell in Europe might just be enough to push the country into yet another crisis. European demand for LNG has spiked since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Europe’s resultant embargos on Russian natural gas. Global demand for LNG has increased… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Why-Pakistan-Is-Praying-For-Warm-Weather-In-Europe.html |
|
UK To Support Ukraine To Ensure A “Decisive Military Victory”Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has arrived in the United Kingdom for talks with British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, his second known trip abroad since Russia’s unprovoked invasion of his country one year ago. “We will continue to support Ukraine to ensure a decisive military victory on the battlefield this year,” Sunak told parliament. Sunak’s office said Zelenskiy will visit Ukrainian troops training in Britain on February 8 and address the British Parliament. Additionally, Buckingham Palace said Zelenskiy would meet… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/UK-To-Support-Ukraine-To-Ensure-A-Decisive-Military-Victory.html |
|
Oil Retreats On EIA Inventory DataCrude oil prices moved lower today after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported an inventory build of 2.4 million barrels for the week to February 3. This comes after three weeks of inventory builds, two of them quite substantial. At 455.1 million barrels, U.S. crude inventories are about 4 percent above the five-year average for this time of the year. In gasoline, the EIA estimated an inventory increase of 5 million barrels for the week to February 3, with production averaging 9.1 million barrels daily. This compared with an inventory… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Oil-Retreats-On-EIA-Inventory-Data.html |
|
Iran Expects $100 Oil When Chinese Demand ReboundsOil prices could return to the $100 per barrel mark in the second half of 2023 on the back of rising Chinese demand and expected limited additional supply, Afshin Javan, Iran’s OPEC representative, told Reuters on Wednesday. Iran is exempted from the OPEC+ production cuts and quotas due to the U.S. sanctions on its oil industry and exports. OPEC and OPEC+ did a fine job when they decided at the end of last year to reduce the collective target output, Javan said. OPEC+ decided to cut the target by 2 million barrels per day (bpd) from November… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Iran-Expects-100-Oil-When-Chinese-Demand-Rebounds.html |
|
TotalEnergies Doubles Profits In Its Best Year EverTotalEnergies (NYSE: TTE) saw its net profit double in 2022 to a record $36.2 billion and announced an increase in dividends and share repurchases after the best annual results for the company and for Big Oil ever. The French supermajor reported on Wednesday $36.2 billion in adjusted net income for 2022, double from a year earlier, thanks to higher oil and gas production, higher prices, a jump in LNG sales, and what it described as a “historic” performance in the downstream segment. For the fourth quarter of 2022, TotalEnergies reported… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/TotalEnergies-Doubles-Profits-In-Its-Best-Year-Ever.html |
|
Big Oil Smashes Earnings Record With $219 Billion In ProfitsEach of the world’s biggest oil and gas majors reported record profits for 2022 in the past week, doubling their combined net earnings from 2021 and booking the best-ever year for Big Oil. Combined, the net profits of Exxon, Chevron, BP, Shell, Equinor, and TotalEnergies surged to $219 billion for 2022, up from around $100 billion booked for 2021, as oil and gas prices surged following the Russian invasion of Ukraine and majors raised oil and gas production to meet growing demand for oil and limited gas supply from Russia to Europe. … Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Big-Oil-Smashes-Earnings-Record-With-219-Billion-In-Profits.html |
|
Equinor Reports Record Profits In 2022Equinor (NYSE: EQNR) on Wednesday joined the group of oil and gas majors reporting record profits for 2022 as its adjusted earnings after tax more than doubled on the back of high oil and gas prices. The Norwegian energy major reported adjusted earnings after tax of $22.7 billion for 2022, more than double the $10 billion earnings booked in 2021. Fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of $15.1 billion beat a company-provided poll of analysts who had expected $14.4 billion in earnings. Adjusted earnings after tax rose by 32% year on year to $5.8 billion… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Equinor-Reports-Record-Profits-In-2022.html |
|
Renewable Energy Surge Signals A Tipping Point For Power Sector EmissionsAn expected surge in renewables electricity generation over the next few years signals that the world is close to the tipping point of emissions in the power sector, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday. In its Electricity Market Report 2023 published today, the agency expects significant growth in renewables over the next three years which will raise their share of the global power generation mix from 29% in 2022 to 35% in 2025, while the shares of coal-fired and gas-fired generation will drop. “As a result, the CO2 intensity… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Renewable-Energy-Surge-Signals-A-Tipping-Point-For-Power-Sector-Emissions.html |
|
Alphabet shares fall 7% following Google’s A.I. eventShares of Alphabet tumbled Wednesday after the company held an event to promote its new artificial intelligence chatbot. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/08/alphabet-shares-slip-following-googles-ai-event-.html |
|
Disney will report earnings for the first time since Bob Iger’s return – what to expectDisney reports fiscal first-quarter earnings after the bell. This is Bob Iger’s first earnings release since returning as CEO in November. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/08/disney-dis-earnings-q1-2023.html |
|
S&P 500 closes 1% lower, Nasdaq sheds 1.7% on Wednesday amid corporate profit worriesThe major averages slipped following the latest batch of corporate earnings reports. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/07/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html |
|
Google veteran of 18 years leaving to start A.I. company with ex-Salesforce co-CEO Bret TaylorLongtime Google exec Clay Bavor said he’s leaving the company to build an AI startup with former Salesforce co-CEO Bret Taylor. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/08/google-s-clay-bavor-for-ai-startup-with-ex-salesforce-ceo-bret-taylor.html |
|
The tater tot trade: Domino’s new menu item should boost this potato play, Bank of America saysAnalysts are bullish on shares of potato producer Lamb Weston, spurred by Domino’s Pizza’s new tater tots menu item rolling out this month. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/08/dominos-tater-tots-launch-should-boost-this-potato-play-bank-of-america-says.html |
|
Five key economic points in Biden’s 2023 State of the Union address to CongressBiden renewed his call for levying a tax on billionaires, continued his fight against junk fees, cracked down on monopolistic practices and high drug prices. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/08/five-key-economic-points-in-bidens-2023-state-of-the-union-address-to-congress.html |
|
Netflix starts cracking down on password sharing in four countriesUsers will be asked to set a “primary location” for their Netflix accounts and will be allowed two “sub accounts” for users who don’t live in that household. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/08/netflix-password-sharing-crackdown-launches-in-four-countries.html |
|
Lawyers and advisors in FTX bankruptcy have billed nearly $20 million for 51 days of workFTX’s top bankruptcy, legal and financial advisors have billed the company more than $19.6 million in fees, according to Tuesday bankruptcy court filings. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/08/ftx-bankruptcy-fees-near-20-million-for-51-days-of-work.html |
|
Wholesale egg prices have ‘collapsed.’ Why consumers may soon see reliefWholesale egg prices have declined by over 50% from their recent record highs. Retail prices may soon follow, but that’s not a sure thing. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/07/wholesale-egg-prices-have-collapsed-from-record-highs-in-december.html |
|
Ukraine war live updates: President Zelenskyy presses UK Parliament for fighter jets as Britain expands sanctions on RussiaUkraine continues to focus its efforts on preparing for a large-scale Russian offensive that could be launched in the coming days. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/08/ukraine-war-live-updates-latest-news-on-russia-and-the-war-in-ukraine.html |
|
Movie theaters get creative with food and drink as they struggle to fill seatsMovie theaters are launching creative food initiatives as they struggle with heavy debt loads and empty seats. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/08/movie-theaters-upscale-food-empty-seats.html |
|
SpaceX prepares for a massive test this week: Firing all 33 Starship engines at onceSpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell spoke at the FAA’s annual Commercial Space Transportation conference in Washington, D.C. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/08/spacex-prepares-test-fire-all-starship-engines-at-once.html |
|
Hope fading as deaths in Turkey, Syria quake near 12,000Rescue teams toiled Wednesday in Turkey and Syria, searching buildings toppled by a catastrophic earthquake as the death toll passed 11,000. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/08/crews-find-survivors-many-dead-after-turkey-syria-earthquake.html |
|
Watch: Bill Gates Says It’s OK For Him To Use Private Jets Because He’s “The Solution” To Climate ChangeAuthored by Steve Watson via Summit News, In a cringe-inducing interview with a BBC reporter, Bill Gates argued that it’s perfectly fine for him to fly around the world on private jets because he’s doing much more than anyone else to combat climate change. Gates claimed that because he continues to “spend billions of dollars” on climate change activism, his carbon footprint isn’t an issue. “Should I stay at home and not come to Kenya and learn about farming and malaria?” Gates said in the interview with Amol Rajan. “I’m comfortable with the idea that not only am I not part of the problem by paying for the offsets, but also through the billions that my Breakthrough Energy Group is spending, that I’m part of the soluti … Read more at: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/watch-bill-gates-says-its-ok-him-use-private-jets-because-hes-solution-climate-change |
|
Shrinking Money Supply Undercuts “Soft Landing” NarrativeAuthored by Michael Maharrey via SchiffGold.com, The better-than-expected non-farm payroll report for January and the smaller interest rate hike delivered by the Federal Reserve at its February meeting increased optimism that the central bank can bring price inflation back to 2% without tanking the economy. But the shrinking money supply undercuts this soft landing narrative. While Fed rate hikes and balance sheet reductions aren’t likely big enough to permanently take down inflation, they are Read more at: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/shrinking-money-supply-undercuts-soft-landing-narrative |
|
We’ve Got Great News: Wholesale Egg Prices “Collapse”The soaring cost of eggs at grocery stores has been a major pain point for consumers. There’s a glimmer of hope that retail egg prices per dozen might have peaked as wholesale prices tumble. New data from Urner Barry, a market research firm that tracks wholesale food prices, shows its Urner Barry Egg Index has plunged 57% since peaking at $4.65 per dozen on Dec. 19. Wholesale prices are now at $2.01. “Prices have collapsed, “Angel Rubio, senior analyst at Urner Barry, told CNBC. He added:
The plunge in wholesale prices won’t immediately reflect in retail prices though prices have likely peaked. This is wonderful news for breakfast lovers. Recall that the cause of soaring egg prices was the Read more at: https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/weve-got-great-news-wholesale-egg-prices-collapse |
|
A Bigger Picture Look At US Housing Affordability (Or Just How Over-Priced Are American Homes)Via Political Calculations blog, What can you discover when you chart median new home sale prices against median household income? Here’s the visualized beginning of the answer to that question, using annual data from 1967 through 2021 and monthly data from December 2000 through December 2022! What you first see is there are some long running and often linear relationships between these two variables. And what you find is that when you get to … Read more at: https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/bigger-picture-look-us-housing-affordability-or-just-how-over-priced-are-american |
|
McDonald’s manager ‘exposed himself in front of me’The allegations by a former McDonald’s worker come after the chain signed an agreement to protect staff. Read more at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64553852?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA |
|
NFT images of furry Birkin bags violated trademark rulesHermes, which owns the brand, has won a landmark case against an artist who created NFTs of the famous bag. Read more at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64573513?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA |
|
Microsoft deal to buy Activision opposed by UK regulatorThe Competition and Markets Authority says it would lead to higher prices and fewer choices for gamers. Read more at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-64570890?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA |
|
Tech View: Nifty forms green candle to rise above short-term average. What traders should do on Thursday expiryIf we have to surpass the sturdy wall of 17900–18000, banking heavyweights should contribute convincingly. Above this, the market will come out of the recent congestion zone, and we may see good broad-based participation thereafter Read more at: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/tech-view-nifty-forms-green-candle-to-rise-above-short-term-average-what-traders-should-do-on-thursday-expiry/articleshow/97732444.cms |
|
Shree Cement Q3 Results: PAT declines 44% YoY to Rs 277 croreHowever, its revenue from operation grew 15% YoY at Rs 4,069 crore during the October-December 2022 period compared to Rs 3,552 crore in the year-ago period. Read more at: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/earnings/shree-cement-q3-results-pat-declines-44-yoy-to-rs-277-crore-revenue-rises-15/articleshow/97725466.cms |
|
10 auto stocks that can race ahead after Budget 2023With an effective provision of capital outlay of Rs 13.7 lakh crore, various brokerages believe that Budget 2023 will make a positive impact on the domestic automobile industry. Also in the Budget, customs duty exemption has been extended on the import of capital goods and machinery required for manufacturing lithium-ion cells for batteries used in EVs, which will further benefit battery stocks like Exide and Amara Raja. Here is a list of 10 auto stocks that can race ahead after Budget 2023: Read more at: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/10-auto-stocks-that-can-race-ahead-after-budget-2023/in-fast-lane/articleshow/97721984.cms |
|
The Moneyist: ‘I will be a tenant’: My boyfriend wants me to move into his home and pay rent. I suggested only paying for utilities and groceries. What should I do?‘I offered to pay for all the utilities, internet, cable and groceries.’ Read more at: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B20C06575-04D4-B545-7191-49B28F28982C%7D&siteid=rss&rss=1 |
|
Bond Report: U.S. bond yields finish mostly lower as traders weigh disinflation and Fed’s need for higher ratesTwo- and 10-year Treasury yields fell on Wednesday despite a raft of comments from central bankers on the need to keep hiking interest rates. Read more at: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B20C06575-04D4-B545-7193-943B7F7F197B%7D&siteid=rss&rss=1 |
|
In One Chart: Top executives facing higher interest rates and earnings pressure cut corporate debt levelsU.S. corporations with top investment grade credit ratings trim their debt load as the Federal Reserve warns its inflation fight isn’t over. Read more at: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B20C06575-04D4-B545-7193-FDDA98EF92D6%7D&siteid=rss&rss=1 |