Summary Of the Markets Today:
- The Dow closed up 206 points or 0.61%,
- Nasdaq closed up 1.76%,
- S&P 500 closed up 1.10%,
- Gold $1930 down $12.60,
- WTI crude oil settled at $81 up $0.90,
- 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.495% up 0.033 points,
- USD $101.81 up $0.18,
- Bitcoin $23,024 up $87 – Session Low 22,899
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
Click here to read our Economic Forecast for January 2023
Today’s Economic Releases:
Unfortunately, I do not think GDP came in strong as the headline suggests. Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.9% in the fourth quarter of 2022, after increasing by 3.2% in the third quarter. GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected increases in inventory investment and consumer spending that were offset by a decrease in housing investment. EconCurrents does not use quarter-over-quarter growth to evaluate GDP – but uses year-over-year growth to view GDP. 4Q2022 continued the downward slope of GDP growth showing 1.0% growth year-over-year, down from 3Q2022 1.9% year-over-year (see graph below).
The Real gross domestic product (GDP) release includes the inflation adjuster (deflator). This deflator (green line on graph below) shows continued moderation of inflation from 7.1% for 3Q2022 to 6.3% for 4Q2022.
In the week ending January 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted unemployment insurance weekly initial claims 4-week moving average was 197,500, a decrease of 9,250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 750 from 206,000 to 206,750.
New orders for manufactured durable goods improved in December 2022 to 11.9% year-over-year – up from last month’s 6.9% year-over-year. If one inflation adjusts this data, the December improvement was 6.7%. This is particularly strong growth and not indicative of a slowing economy. Much of this increase was driven by civilian aircraft orders.
My favorite coincident indicator, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI), showed three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made negative contributions in December – but the negative elephant in the room was industrial production. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –0.33 in December from –0.14 in November. According to the authors of the index, this means the economy did not expand in December 2022. The graph below shows the historical values of the CFNAI-MA3 (which is used for economic forecasting) – and the red line shows the value that the authors of the index believe is the recession line.
Sales of new single‐family houses in December 2022 were 26.6% below December 2021. An estimated 644,000 new homes were sold in 2022 which is 16.4% below the 2021 figure of 771,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in December 2022 was $442,100. The average sales price was $528,400. The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of December was 461,000. This represents a supply of 9.0 months at the current sales rate. The graph below shows the year-over-year change in houses sold (blue line) and the median sales price (red line). In other words, home prices continue to rise even while sales volumes fall.
Regional factory activity for the Kansas City Fed was basically flat in January 2023. The month-over-month composite index was -1 in January, up slightly from -4 in December and -2 in November However, expectations for future activity were still positive, and many firms expected employment levels to increase over the next six months. Most regional Fed manufacturing indices are weak or in negative territory. One would expect poor manufacturing new orders and shipments in January.
A summary of headlines we are reading today:
- Soaring Food Prices Prompt Eurasian Nations To Ban Food Exports
- Bed Bath & Beyond shares plunge after retailer warns it doesn’t have the cash to pay down debts
- Southwest forecasts lingering losses as bookings slow in wake of holiday meltdown
- Chipotle seeks to hire 15,000 restaurant workers ahead of busy spring months
- Walmart-owned Sam’s Club plans to open about 30 new stores over next five years
- Comcast beats expectations even as broadband growth slows, Peacock racks up losses
- Stock Warnings Get Louder With Estimates Falling
- Lawrence G. McMillan: The S&P 500 is trying to top 4100, and the odds favor that happening by the end of January.
These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.
The Market in Perspective
| Here are the headlines moving the markets. | |
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Scientists Invent Hydrogen-Producing Solar CellEcole Polytechnique Fdrale de Lausanne chemical engineers have invented a solar-powered artificial leaf, built on a novel electrode that is transparent and porous. The artificial leaf is capable of harvesting water from the atmosphere for conversion into hydrogen fuel. The semiconductor-based technology is scalable and easy to prepare. The paper reporting the results has been published in Advanced Materials. A device that can harvest water from the air and provide hydrogen fuel entirely powered by solar energy Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Scientists-Invent-Hydrogen-Producing-Solar-Cell.html |
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Europe Is Diversifying Its Diesel Sources Ahead Of Ban On Russian FuelEurope is buying more diesel from the United States and Saudi Arabia in preparation of the EU ban on seaborne imports of Russian refined products, yet Europe still remains the biggest buyer of Russian diesel, data compiled by Anadolu agency showed on Thursday. The EU will ban effective February 5 seaborne imports of Russian refined oil products and around 1 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian diesel, naphtha, and other fuels need to find a home elsewhere if Moscow wants to continue getting money for those products. More than half Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Europe-Is-Diversifying-Its-Diesel-Sources-Ahead-Of-Ban-On-Russian-Fuel.html |
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Iraqi Supreme Court Ruling May Reignite Kurdish Oil DisputeAfter promising indications that the Iraqi federal government would ease up on its legislative war with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) over the latter’s unilateral oil contracts and exports, the Federal Supreme Court delivered a setback Wednesday, ruling budget transfers to the KRG illegal. The decision comes as Erbil and Baghdad appeared to be close to reaching a deal on the constitution, which would have calmed a long-running feud over the KRGs portion of the federal Iraqi budget, which has been in question due to its independent Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Iraqi-Supreme-Court-Ruling-May-Reignite-Kurdish-Oil-Dispute.html |
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Soaring Food Prices Prompt Eurasian Nations To Ban Food ExportsThe harshest winter since 2008 is contributing to shortages of staple vegetables across Central Asia and sending prices north in a region still suffering from COVID-induced food inflation. In Uzbekistan, record frosts have highlighted the shortcomings of the national energy system as even residents of the capital spent days on end without power. But the cold has also hammered the agriculture sector in the region’s most populous country. On January 20, the Uzbek agriculture minister announced a four-month ban on exports of onions after Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Soaring-Food-Prices-Prompt-Eurasian-Nations-To-Ban-Food-Exports.html |
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Freeport LNG Gets Regulatory ApprovalThe Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has given Freeport LNG Development, L.P. the approval it requested to restart some operations, a regulatory filing from Thursday shows. I grant your request for Freeport LNG Development, L.P. (Freeport LNG) to commence commissioning, including cooldown, of Loop 1 LNG transfer piping and commissioning and reinstate service of the boil-off gas (BOG) management system, the FERCs Office of Energy Project letter said. This approval is based on a review of the written request and data Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Freeport-LNG-Gets-Regulatory-Approval.html |
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Why The UAE Wants To Invite Oil And Gas Companies To The COP28 Climate SummitThe United Arab Emirates (UAE) has been repeatedly criticized since winning its bid to hold the COP28 climate summit later this year, particularly for its ongoing dependence on oil and gas to sustain its economy. While some say it is vital that the oil powers requiring the most diversification to survive without fossil fuels, such as the UAE, be closely involved in the global climate talks, others are condemning the decision. Environmentalists worldwide worry that the UAE will not take COP28 seriously and will undermine the progress being made Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Why-The-UAE-Wants-To-Invite-Oil-And-Gas-Companies-To-The-COP28-Climate-Summit.html |
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Bed Bath & Beyond shares plunge after retailer warns it doesn’t have the cash to pay down debtsBed Bath & Beyond again warned of potential bankruptcy, saying it doesn’t have enough cash to pay down its debts. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/26/bed-bath-and-beyond-warns-it-doesnt-have-cash-to-pay-debts.html |
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Southwest forecasts lingering losses as bookings slow in wake of holiday meltdownSouthwest expects a first-quarter loss because of current revenue and cost trends. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/26/southwest-airlines-luv-earnings-q4-2022.html |
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Luxury retailer LVMH sees Chinese shoppers returning, boosting 2023 salesLVMH’s cautious optimism echoes positive comments earlier this month from Burberry and Swatch. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/26/lvmh-sees-chinese-luxury-shoppers-returning-boosting-2023-sales.html |
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NBCUniversal expects Peacock losses to peak this year as streamer slowly adds subscribersPeacock losses will likely peak in 2023, as NBCUniversal invests further in its response to the streaming wars. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/26/peacock-losses-to-peak-this-year-slowly-adds-subscribers.html |
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Audi’s new EV is a luxury SUV with augmented reality that doubles as a pickupAudi’s new concept vehicle is an all-electric luxury SUV that uses augmented reality glasses and can double as a small pickup truck. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/26/audi-new-ev-suv-augmented-reality-pickup-truck.html |
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Chipotle seeks to hire 15,000 restaurant workers ahead of busy spring monthsLayoffs have hit white-collar workers, primarily in the tech industry, but low-wage retail and restaurant workers haven’t faced any large-scale cuts. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/26/chipotle-hiring-restaurant-workers-for-spring.html |
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How ‘Skinamarink’ made $1.5 million on a $15,000 budget“Skinamarink,” the indie horror film directed by Kyle Edward Ball, has become an unlikely viral hit at movie theaters. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/26/skinamarink-viral-horror-box-office.html |
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Walmart-owned Sam’s Club plans to open about 30 new stores over next five yearsSam’s Club is expanding after seeing sharp gains in sales and membership during the Covid pandemic. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/26/walmart-owned-sams-club-plans-to-open-new-stores.html |
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American Airlines beats fourth-quarter profit expectations as higher fares buoy revenueAs it heads into its first quarter of 2023, the airline expects capacity to be 8% to 10% higher than in the first quarter of 2022. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/26/american-airlines-aal-earnings-q4-2022.html |
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Toyota CEO and President Akio Toyoda to step downToyoda, 66, is the grandson of the carmaker’s founder and has served as chief executive since June 2009. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/26/toyota-ceo-and-president-akio-toyoda-to-step-down-.html |
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Comcast beats expectations even as broadband growth slows, Peacock racks up lossesComcast reported fourth-quarter earnings before the bell, beating analyst expectations. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/26/comcast-cmcsa-4q22-earnings.html |
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IRS warns tax refunds may be ‘somewhat lower.’ With high inflation, that’s a ‘double whammy’ for families, says an advisorIf you’re expecting a tax refund, it may be smaller than last year’s payment, according to the IRS. Here’s why. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/26/heres-why-your-tax-refund-may-be-smaller-this-year.html |
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Stock Warnings Get Louder With Estimates FallingBy Isabelle Lee, Bloomberg Markets Live reporter and strategist Investors fretting about the prospects for global earnings growth may want to brace for a long slog this year, and stiff headwinds to equities as a result. Analysts’ estimates for 2023 profits continue to fall, with major regions showing negative revision momentum, according to research from Bloomberg Intelligence’s Gina Martin Adams and Gillian Wolff. In the US, for example, sell-side analysts have lowered projections by more than half since September, while the outlook for emerging markets has slumped even more.
Read more at: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stock-warnings-get-louder-estimates-falling |
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Senate GOP “Breakfast Club” Formulating Debt Ceiling Debate StrategyA group of seven Republican Senators have been holding Tuesday “breakfast club” meetings in order to formulate a strategy for the upcoming showdown over the debt ceiling.
Senators Rick Scott, from right, Mike Lee, Ron Johnson, Rand Paul, and Mike Braun during a news conference at the US Capitol in Washington, on Jan. 25.Photographer: Al Drago/Bloomberg According to Sen. Mike Braun (R-IN), the group doesn’t actually gather for a meal. “No breakfast — we’re fiscal conservatives,” he told Bloomberg.
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AG Merrick Garland Says No Double Standard Of Justice In Biden Classified Docs CaseAG Merrick Garland Says No Double Standard Of Justice In Biden Classified Docs CaseAuthored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours), Attorney General Merrick Garland said Monday that his agency hasn’t used a double standard when investigating President Joe Biden’s classified case.
U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland speaks in Washington on Sept. 20, 2022. (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)Former President Donald Trump and some Republicans have said the Department of Justice has treated Biden more leniently than the former commander-in-chief, whose house was raided by FBI agents in August. Those agents found materials with classified markings, the Justice Department has said. “We do not have different rules for Democrats or Republicans, different rules for the powerful or the po … Read more at: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/ag-merrick-garland-says-no-double-standard-justice-biden-classified-docs-case |
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Black And White Gold + BRICS And Mortars = InflationBy Michael Every of Rabobank Black gold, white gold = inflationTrigger warning: today’s Daily again references big picture issues and literal triggers, rather than the up-and-down xbp or y% of assets a, b, or c. Except in one regard: markets were juiced yesterday by a major US energy firm announcing it would start share buy-backs on a huge scale. That is despite the backdrop of rising refinery crack spreads and worries about the future upwards trajectory of energy prices. Regardless, financialization again takes priority over productive investment and production – although the US firm involved points to the regulatory backdrop steering towards a green transition as part of the reason for its choice. On which, the Guardian(!) yesterday “Revealed:” –though it’s no revelation to some– “How US transition to electric cars threatens environmental havoc.” In short, the required lithium is three times the current global production, with appalling environmental side-effects and destruction of water tables; and that’s just for the US, not the growing global market. The Guardian argues the only sustainable solution is to build more walkable US cities with public transport and bicycle options. Which rules out the American Way; and that of Canada and Mexico; Latin America; obviously the Middle East; most of Asia; Australia; even fluffy New Zealand; and Africa too, as it develops. Indeed, we would need an unfeasibly expensive economic geography-economic model redesign to make everywhere work like Amsterdam, nice as that would be. Logically, therefore prod … Read more at: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/black-and-white-gold-brics-and-mortars-inflation |
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Transpennine Express boss apologizes for poor servicesThe head of Transpennine Express admits services have not been good enough in recent months. Read more at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64412789?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA |
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Green claims on household basics investigatedThe competition watchdog is concerned shoppers are being “misled” about goods claiming to be green. Read more at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64411003?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA |
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Is UK being left behind in the global fight for investment?The future of the planet and the global economy are entwined in a potentially risky geopolitical game. Read more at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64405020?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA |
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Smart Talk: Market may be disappointed if capex is not increased this Budget, says Amit Gupta“Affordable housing, electricity, Nal se Jal, and higher manufacturing would remain the prime focus for the government. Infra spending will get a further push. Capital expenditure can be increased from 2.9% of GDP to 3.5% of GDP.” Read more at: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/expert-views/smart-talk-market-may-be-disappointed-if-capital-expenditure-is-not-increased-this-budget-says-amit-gupta/articleshow/97338812.cms |
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Patanjali Q3 Results: PAT rises 15% YoY to Rs 269 crore, but profitability hit by costsOperating profit, calculated as earnings before interest and tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA), declined 12.4% on-year to Rs 368 crore, while margin contracted a sharp 205 basis points to 4.64% Read more at: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/earnings/patanjali-q3-results-pat-rises-15-yoy-to-rs-269-crore-but-profitability-hit-by-costs/articleshow/97320901.cms |
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After 12 quarters, FIIs make a comeback in this IT stock; what’s changed the mood?While announcing its September quarter earnings, HCL Tech raised the constant currency revenue growth guidance to 13.5-14.5% for FY23. But 2 months later, it said that growth is likely to be at the lower end of this range. Read more at: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/after-12-quarters-fiis-make-a-comeback-in-this-it-stock-whats-changed-the-mood/articleshow/97300864.cms |
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Lawrence G. McMillan: The S&P 500 is trying to top 4100, and the odds favor that happening by the end of January.Late January’s typical trading pattern is bullish for the U.S. stock market. Read more at: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B20C06575-04D4-B545-7187-8F268946BC12%7D&siteid=rss&rss=1 |
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Bed Bath & Beyond stock plunges, halted after filing shows default on loansBed Bath & Beyond Inc. shares plunged more than 20% and were halted repeatedly Thursday afternoon, after the retailer disclosed it was in default on loans. Read more at: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B20C06575-04D4-B545-7187-E3D063DB7966%7D&siteid=rss&rss=1 |
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Living With Climate Change: Gas-stove ban: As the U.S. moves closer to action, cooks want to know, ‘What’s the real risk?’The U.S. could be edging nearer to a ban on new gas stoves, if the interest of a federal consumer safety commission is any indication. Read more at: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B20C06575-04D4-B545-717A-5568F6CD4B9C%7D&siteid=rss&rss=1 |
Source: Bloomberg IntelligenceThe upshot is it may be too early for investors to bet on a full-fledge rebound from the pummeling equities took last year, even with China moving past its zero-Covid policies and the Federal Reserve potentially set to end its interest-rate hikes. The concern is that companies still have more pain to absorb as th …
