This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Feb 11 2025
Valid 12Z Tue Feb 11 2025 – 12Z Thu Feb 13 2025…Heavy snow over the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday; Heavy snow over the
Central Plains to the Great Lakes on Wednesday……Rain/freezing rain over parts of the Southern Plains to the
Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians with 0. 50 inches of ice accumulations
possible on Tuesday and Wednesday: Rain/freezing rain over parts of the
Southern Plains to the Northeast with 0. 10 inches of ice accumulations
possible on Wednesday……There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Lower
Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley, and Southern Appalachians on Tuesday
and Wednesday……There is a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms over parts of the Lower
Mississippi Valley and the Southeast on Wednesday……Temperatures will be 25 to 35 degrees below average across the Northern
Rockies eastward to the Upper Great Lakes and southward to the Central
High Plains…On Tuesday, an Arctic high over the Northern Plains will slowly move
southward to the Central /Southern Plains by Thursday. The cold air
associated with the high will bring temperatures 25 to 35 degrees below
average across the Northern Rockies eastward to the Upper Great Lakes and
southward to the Central High Plains. The cold temperatures have prompted
an Extreme Cold Warning over the Northern Rockies to the Northern Plains.South of the Artic high, a front extending from the Southeast to the
Southern Rockies and then to the Great Basin will spawn a wave of low
pressure over the Lower Mississippi Valley that moves northeastward,
almost to the Southern Appalachians, by late Tuesday night. Additionally,
a second wave of low pressure just off the Southeast Coast moves northward
to near Cape Hatteras also by late Tuesday night and then moves out over
the Western Atlantic.Moisture from the Gulf will stream northward over the Southern Plains and
Lower Mississippi Valley, intersecting the cold air moving south over the
Plains, producing an area of moderate to heavy snow over Central
Rockies/Plains into parts of the Middle Mississippi.Moreover, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the
Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley on Tuesday,
producing heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level
2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains/Lower
Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley through Wednesday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the
most vulnerable.Meanwhile, a significant Winter Storm begins Tuesday. The storm will
produce heavy snow from northeast Kentucky into West Virginia through the
I-95 corridor from Richmond to Philadelphia. Snowfall rates will sometimes
reach 1 inch per hour, with heavy, wet snow totals of 4-8 inches expected.
Isolated power outages are possible, and travel may become extremely
hazardous (especially during the Tuesday evening commute).In addition, a long-duration freezing rain event is expected to occur
across portions of the Central Appalachians, especially within the Blue
Ridge from far northwest North Carolina into southwest and central
Virginia. There is a high chance (60-80%) of 0.25 inch plus for ice
accumulations in these areas and a medium chance (30-50%) for 0.50 inch
plus of ice accumulations. The freezing rain will result in dangerous
travel and may cause power outages and tree damage. Further, rain will
develop over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and southern Mid-Atlantic
and will expand into parts of the Southeast by late Tuesday night.Furthermore, a second wave of low pressure will develop over parts of the
Southern Plains on Wednesday morning and move northeastward to southeast
Ontario, Canada, by Thursday. On Wednesday, the system will produce severe
showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley and
the Southeast. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of
severe thunderstorms over parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley and the
Southeast from Wednesday through Thursday morning. The hazards associated
with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, a few tornadoes, and a minimal threat of hail.Moreover, the showers and thunderstorms will have heavy rain. Therefore,
the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Southern Appalachians from
Wednesday into Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small
streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.Furthermore, heavy snow will develop on Wednesday from parts of the
Central Plains to the Great Lakes, with snowfall rates of around 1 inch
per hour and a (>50% chance) of producing at least 5 inches of total snow
accumulation. A wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain over central/eastern
Oklahoma into the Ozarks will produce ice accumulation of a tenth of an
inch or more. Any amount of freezing rain could make for hazardous travel
on untreated surfaces.One more system will start to move into the West Coast late Wednesday
night into Thursday morning. The Storm will produce rain and
higher-elevation snow over parts of the Pacific Northwest and California.Elsewhere, lake-effect snow will wind down downwind from Lakes Superior,
Michigan, and Ontario on Tuesday. The heaviest snowfall will be over the
Keweenaw Peninsula in Northern Michigan and the Tug Hill Plateau in New
York State.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code. If the Hazards Outlook is not updated click here but remember it does not update during the weekend.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports
New Feature – Ski Reports. It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every Econcurrents Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.
Snow Forecasts. And remember this shows natural snow. Ski resorts also make their own snow.
Day 1
Day 2
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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10
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14 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
