This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Dec 25 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Dec 25 2024 – 12Z Fri Dec 27 2024…Continued rounds of heavy rain and mountain snow for the Pacific
Northwest……Heavy rain and strong thunderstorms return for eastern Texas into
Louisiana on Thursday……Relatively mild conditions across the majority of the country through
Thursday…The very active storm track across the eastern Pacific and into the
Pacific Northwest will continue to make weather headlines through
Thursday. After a brief break in the action, steady rainfall reaches the
Washington and Oregon coasts by midday Christmas, and then reaches
northern California by evening. Periods of heavy rainfall are likely
Wednesday night as the atmospheric river intersects the coastal terrain,
with perhaps a few thunderstorms. This round will likely result in
widespread 1 to 2 inch rainfall totals, and potentially more on the west
facing slopes, and there may be some instances of flooding where rainfall
rates are highest. Once this first system moves inland, there will be a
short-lived break Thursday afternoon before the next round arrives
Thursday night for many of the same areas, bringing an additional 1-2
inches of rain by Friday morning. Strong winds are also expected near the
coast and the coastal waters given a strong low level jet with these storm
systems. Snow levels are likely to be lower with the second round, with
the Cascades getting hammered with heavy snow on the order of 1-3 feet,
and lighter snows heading south into northern California. The higher
terrain of the northern Intermountain West and the Northern Rockies will
also get noteworthy snowfall, particularly across eastern Oregon and into
Idaho.Unsettled weather conditions are also expected for portions of the
south-central U.S. with a loitering surface low over Texas and a
meandering stationary front over eastern Texas and into Louisiana. There
will likely be a decrease in the shower and thunderstorm coverage on
Christmas Day, but an amplifying upper trough will develop a new surface
low and moisture plume from the western Gulf, heralding the development of
scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms. Both wind shear and
instability parameters appear to become increasingly favorable for some
severe weather on Thursday, and therefore the Storm Prediction Center has
portions of the ArkLaTex region in a Slight Risk for severe storms. Heavy
rainfall could also be an issue where these storms train over the same
areas, and there is a Slight Risk of flash flooding from eastern Texas to
central Arkansas.Elsewhere across the country, mainly dry conditions are forecast across
the Desert Southwest, Northern Plains, and most of the East Coast states
with the exception of some showers near the Florida East Coast. Foggy
conditions are likely across portions of the Midwest and the Central
Plains both Christmas morning and Thursday morning with warm air advection
over cold ground. In terms of temperatures, forecast highs on Christmas
Day and Thursday generally range from the 30s and 40s for the northern
Rockies/Plains eastward to the Great Lakes and New England/Mid-Atlantic;
the 40s and 50s for the Pacific Northwest and northern California eastward
across much of the Intermountain West, central Rockies/Plains, and
extending eastward to the Ohio Valley; the 50s and 60s for the Mid-South
and the Southeast U.S. states; and the 60s and 70s for southern
California, the Desert Southwest, Texas, and Florida.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports
New Feature – Ski Reports. It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every Econcurrents Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.
Snow Forecasts. And remember this shows natural snow. Ski resorts also make their own snow.
Day 1
Day 2
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
