This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Dec 15 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Dec 15 2024 – 12Z Tue Dec 17 2024…Wintry mix expected for the Appalachians Sunday with the potential for
significant icing in the central Appalachians……Showers and storms with locally heavy rainfall possible across the
Lower Ohio Valley through Monday……Pacific system to bring a renewed round of lower elevation/coastal rain
and heavy mountain snow to the Northwest late Sunday into Monday…An upper-level wave has helped trigger a broad area of wintry
precipitation this morning which will pass through the interior
Northeast/Appalachians through the day Sunday. Some light snow
accumulations will be possible for the central/northern Appalachians with
some ice accretions expected for the southern/central Appalachians. More
significant ice accretions of 0.1-0.3″ are forecast for a smaller region
of eastern West Virginia north through western Maryland and into southwest
Pennsylvania which could cause tree and power line damage. Some lighter
rain showers will be possible along the Eastern Seaboard. The wintry
precipitation will lift northward into New England bringing some lighter
accumulations into the day Monday.Further West, another upper-level wave/accompanying surface frontal system
will better organize along the High Plains and push eastward into the
Plains Sunday. Some light snow/ice accumulations will be possible
northwest of the system over portions of the northern Plains through
Sunday evening before shifting into the Upper Midwest Monday. To the
south, moist return flow form the Gulf reaching the eastward moving
frontal system will lead to increasing coverage of showers and
thunderstorms across the Lower Ohio Valley southwest into the Southern
Plains by late Sunday. Coverage and intensity should increase through the
day Monday as the front pushes southeastward into the Tennessee Valley and
Lower Mississippi Valley through Monday evening. Some locally heavy
rainfall will be possible, particularly across the Lower Ohio Valley
Monday. Showers are also expected to spread eastward into the Northeast
Monday.Some moderate to locally heavy snow will continue through Sunday morning
for higher mountain elevations of the northern Rockies/Great Basin as well
as for the Cascades as an upper-level trough departs the region.
Precipitation should generally tend to taper off through the afternoon.
However, another Pacific system approaching the Pacific Northwest/northern
California will bring a renewed round of precipitation spreading inland
through the Northwest by Sunday night. Moderate to heavy lower
elevation/coastal rain, a wintry mix for inland valleys, and moderate to
heavy mountain snow can all be expected through Monday. The heaviest snow
totals of 8-12″, locally higher, are most likely from the southern
Cascades/northern California east through Oregon into central Idaho and
northwest Wyoming. Some gusty winds can also be expected along the Pacific
Coast.Elsewhere, some showers and thunderstorms will be possible along the east
coast of Florida north through the Carolinas the next couple of days.
Temperature-wise, conditions will generally be at or above average for
most of the country. Some of the most anomalous temperatures will be over
central portions of the country, with highs in the 60s and 70s for the
Southern Plains Sunday and highs into the 50s for many in the Midwest on
Monday. One of the cooler spots will be along the East Coast as cold air
remains in place along the Appalachians Sunday, with highs in the 30s and
40s as far south as the western Carolinas and northern Georgia.
Temperatures will warm above average here as well on Monday with highs
reaching into the 40s and 50s.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports
New Feature – Ski Reports. It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every Econcurrents Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.
Snow Forecasts. And remember this shows natural snow. Ski resorts also make their own snow.
Day 1
Day 2
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
