This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Dec 13 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Dec 13 2024 – 12Z Sun Dec 15 2024…Atmospheric River to bring very heavy rainfall and possible flooding as
well as high elevation mountain snow to the West Coast……Heavy mountain snow forecast for portions of the Great Basin and
northern Rockies Saturday……Potentially impactful wintry mix with freezing rain expected across the
Middle Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest Saturday…An Atmospheric River event will bring very heavy rain, mountain snow, and
gusty winds to portions of southern Oregon and northern/central California
Friday into Saturday. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) has
been issued along portions of the Coastal Ranges of northern California
where locally heavy rainfall rates of 0.5″ per hour and rainfall totals of
3-5″, with isolated higher amounts upwards of 7″, may lead to some
instances of flooding during the height of the event Friday
evening/overnight into Saturday morning. Very heavy mountain snow is
expected at higher elevations (generally over 5000-6000 feet) of the
Coastal Ranges and for the Sierra Nevada. Winter Storm Warnings have been
issued for forecast snowfall totals of 1-2 feet, locally higher. In
addition to the heavy precipitation, strong, gusty winds are also
expected, particularly for coastal locations. A broader area of more
moderate rainfall stretches across the Pacific Northwest and south along
coastal California. Some Moderate to heavy snow is also forecast further
north through the Cascades where 4-8″, locally higher, can be expected.
The system will continue eastward late Friday and into the day Saturday,
spreading moisture and precipitation chances further inland over the Great
Basin and northern Rockies. A mix of rain and snow can be expected at
lower elevations with snow, heavy at times, for higher mountain
elevations. Winter storm Watches have been issued for the mountains of
central Idaho where the heaviest snow is expected with forecast totals of
6-12″.To the east, an upper-level wave passing from the Rockies and over the
Plains will help to organize a surface frontal system and encourage moist,
southerly return flow from the Gulf of Mexico. Showers and thunderstorms
are forecast ahead of an eastward moving cold front across eastern
portions of the central/southern Plains on Friday. More widespread storms
with moderate to locally heavy rainfall are expected on Saturday as the
system continues into the Middle Mississippi/Lower Ohio Valley. Some
potentially impactful winter weather is forecast further north across the
Middle Missouri Valley and into portions of the Upper Midwest where warm,
moist air overriding colder temperatures will lead to a wintry mix Friday
afternoon through Saturday. Snow/sleet accumulations should remain light,
but some freezing rain accretions are also expected. These accretions may
be greater than 0.1″ over eastern Iowa which could lead to some tree
damage and power outages. Regardless, the wintry mix will at least likely
lead to some travel troubles across the region.Elsewhere, most lake effect snow will be tapering off Friday morning for
the Great Lakes except downwind of Lake Ontario where an additional 6-12″
can be expected through the day Friday. Some light to moderate snow
showers will also continue through the day Friday for the central Rockies
as a cold front moves through the region. High temperatures will remain
cold and below average for much of the north-central and eastern U.S.
following a frontal passage. Forecast highs range from the teens and 20s
for the northern Plains, Great Lakes, and interior Northeast; the 30s and
40s for the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic/coastal Northeast; and the 50s
across the Southeast. Conditions will moderate closer to average Saturday
with highs generally running 5-15 degrees warmer. Forecast highs are
generally at or above average across the West, with 40s and 50s in the
Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and Rockies; the 50s and 60s in
California; and the 70s in the Desert Southwest. Conditions in the
Southern Plains/Texas will be some of the warmest and most above average
compared to the rest of the country with highs into the 60s and 70s.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports
New Feature – Ski Reports. It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every Econcurrents Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.
Snow Forecasts. And remember this shows natural snow. Ski resorts also make their own snow.
Day 1
Day 2
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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10
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14 |
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4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
