This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Dec 11 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Dec 11 2024 – 12Z Fri Dec 13 2024…Widespread heavy rain and severe thunderstorm treats spreading up the
East Coast today and through New England into tonight……A surge of cold air into the eastern U.S. today will be followed by a
reinforcing surge of arctic air into the northern U.S. through the next
couple of days……Another round of significant lake effect snow expected through the next
couple of days downwind of the Lakes...The stage is set for a rapidly intensifying low pressure system to track
up the East Coast today. A potent cold front trailing southwest from the
center of this elongated low pressure system will be the focus for heavy
rain, blustery winds, and strong to severe thunderstorms. Ahead of the
front, warm and moist air streaming in from the nearby Atlantic and Gulf
of Mexico will interact more vigorously with a jet stream aloft to develop
and expand the coverage of showers and thunderstorms, first across the
Southeast and the Carolinas this morning, followed by the Mid-Atlantic
states during the day, and into New England this evening. The highly
dynamic nature of this front will likely trigger formation of strong to
severe thunderstorms. This is especially the case across eastern North
Carolina this afternoon, and into southern New England this evening, where
the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for
severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts. Elsewhere
along the Eastern Seaboard, the main concern will be a period of heavy
rain with embedded strong thunderstorms and intense downpours. Despite
much of the region currently experiencing moderate to extreme drought
conditions, the rain, while mostly beneficial, could lead to some
localized instances of flash flooding. The more urbanized locations and
poor drainage areas would have the greater risk of flooding issues.Behind the potent cold front sharply colder air will surge into the East
Coast from the north and northwest. A period of accumulating wet snow can
be expected to spread up the western slope of the entire spine of the
Appalachians from south to north today through tonight. Meanwhile, a
reinforcing shot of arctic air is plunging into the northern Plains and
will overspread much of the northern tier states through the next couple
of days. High temperatures the next couple of days will be roughly 10 to
as much as 30 degrees below normal.Attention then turns to yet another round of significant lake effect snow
downwind of the Great Lakes through the next couple of days. The
aforementioned surge of arctic air will stream across the still relatively
warm Great Lakes and ignite intense bands of lake effect snow, initially
downwind of Lakes Superior and Michigan on today and then downwind of
Lakes Erie and Ontario tonight into early Thursday. By the time the snow
starts to taper off on Friday, snowfall totals of 1 to 2 feet are likely
in the favored Snow Belt across portions of northwest and western New York
State, far northwest Pennsylvania, far northeastern Ohio, the Upper
Peninsula of Michigan and the western portions of the Lower Peninsula of
Michigan.Along the West Coast, moisture ahead of the next cyclone from the Pacific
is poised to overspread much of the region through the next couple of
days. Northern California will see heavy coastal rain by this evening,
followed by heavy mountain snow farther inland and down the Sierra Nevada
where a foot or more of new snow is forecast through Thursday. It appears
that this round of precipitation will mostly taper off Thursday night
prior to the arrival of the next Pacific system.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports
New Feature – Ski Reports. It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every Econcurrents Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.
Snow Forecasts. And remember this shows natural snow. Ski resorts also make their own snow.
Day 1
Day 2
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
