This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Dec 10 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Dec 10 2024 – 12Z Thu Dec 12 2024…Widespread heavy rain threat emerging across the central to eastern
Gulf Coast region today will spread rapidly up the entire East Coast on
Wednesday……Active Lake effect snows to begin Wednesday and continue through
Thursday downwind of the Lakes……Record warm morning lows likely along the east coast Wednesday
morning……Arctic air to surge south into the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi
Valley region late Tuesday into Wednesday……Santa Ana winds along with critical to extreme fire weather danger
across portions of southern California…The upper-level flow pattern across much of North America will undergo
significant amplification over the next few days, producing various types
of impactful weather across mainland U.S. The most active weather in
terms of precipitation and winds will be the primary focus along the East
Coast through the next couple of days. Precipitation currently falling
across portions of the Southeast is in its organizing stage ahead of a
developing low pressure wave over the Mid-South along a cold front. As
the cold air behind the front interacts with a rapidly amplifying upper
trough, rain and embedded thunderstorms will rapidly expand northeastward
during the day Wednesday and up the entire East Coast, producing a period
of widespread heavy rainfall from the central to eastern Gulf coast,
across the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, Northeast and New England. With much
of these areas currently in moderate to extreme drought conditions, this
rainfall will be beneficial. Still, given the potential for periods of
heavy rains over a short period, there will be a threat of localized flash
flooding, especially in more urbanized regions.The cold front associated with this rapidly intensifying system will
become rather potent as it sweeps across the East Coast during the day on
Wednesday. There is potential for some very strong thunderstorms to form
ahead of the front together with heavy downpours. Meanwhile, drastically
colder air behind the front is forecast to produce accumulating snowfall
up the western slopes of the Appalachians on Wednesday together with
blustery northwesterly winds. The snow will then sweep across interior
New England through Wednesday night into Thursday morning as a potent
elongated low pressure system races northward into southeastern Canada.With a warm southerly flow strengthening ahead of this potent front, there
is the potential for widespread record high morning low temperatures on
Wednesday across the southern Mid-Atlantic, Mid-Atlantic and portions of
the Northeast. In the wake of this front, much colder air will stream
across the Great Lakes from west to east beginning on Wednesday. This will
ignite active lake-effect snows, initially downwind of Lakes Superior and
Michigan on Wednesday and then downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario
Wednesday night into early Thursday. Before these lake-effect snows
diminish by early Friday, snowfall totals of 1 to 2 feet are possible in
the favored Snow Belt across portions of northwest and western New York
State, far northwest Pennsylvania, far northeastern Ohio, the Upper
Peninsula of Michigan and the western portions of the Lower Peninsula of
Michigan.The above-mentioned lake-effect snows will be driven by arctic air that
will be first surging east southeastward late Tuesday into early Wednesday
across the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley and then
eastward trough the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley on Wednesday. While
there are not expected to be any records with this arctic outbreak,
temperatures will be much below average on Wednesday across the Northern
Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley. These much below average
temperatures will then push farther southeast into the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley region on Thursday. Across these regions, high temperatures
will be 10 to 25 degrees below average during the height of the cold
temperatures during Wednesday and Thursday.In contrast to the wet and cold conditions across portions of the
north-central to eastern U.S., dry condition and milder temperatures are
in store across the West coast, Great Basin and Rockies region. The dry
air, low relative humidities together with the latest episode of Santa Ana
winds across southern California will produce critical to locally extreme
fire weather danger. These fire weather conditions will be most prominent
in the higher terrain areas to the north and east of the Los Angeles to
San Diego region. Winds of 35 to 45 mph in the valleys and gusts of 50 to
65 mph in the mountains will help fan any fires that do develop quickly
and may reduce visibility with blowing smoke and dust adding to travel
concerns in the region. Across these areas, red flag warnings are
currently in effect, affecting nearly 13 million people.By early on Thursday, the next round of coastal rain and mountain snow is
forecast to reach northern California as the next Pacific cyclone arrives.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports
New Feature – Ski Reports. It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every Econcurrents Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.
Snow Forecasts. And remember this shows natural snow. Ski resorts also make their own snow.
Day 1
Day 2
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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10
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14 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
