This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Nov 21 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Nov 21 2024 – 12Z Sat Nov 23 2024…Strong atmospheric river continues to impact northern California with
heavy rain and life-threatening flooding through Friday……Developing storm system forecast to bring another round of gusty winds
to the Pacific Northwest on Friday with heavy mountain snow spreading
toward the northern Rockies this weekend...…Unsettled weather expected across much of the Northeast and Great Lakes
over the next few days, including the likelihood of heavy snow in the
central Appalachians and higher elevations of northeastern Pennsylvania
and southern New York…Impactful and for some place dangerous weather conditions will continue
through early this weekend as two separate storm systems impact the Lower
48. Starting in the West, a strong atmospheric river currently impacting
northern California is forecast to remain relatively stationary over the
next few days and produce an additional 6-12 inches of rainfall over
regions with already saturated terrain. The atmospheric river is expected
to peak in intensity today, but with moderate bouts of rain lingering
through much of Friday and snow levels finally lowering somewhat on
Saturday. In the meantime, dangerous flooding, rock slides, and debris
flows are likely, which has prompted a High Risk (level 4/4) of Excessive
Rainfall to be issued across the northern California coastline today. Be
sure to check conditions before traveling and never drive across flooded
roadways.Aiding the surge of atmospheric moisture into northern California and the
Northwest through the end of the week is a developing storm system
forecast to swing off the Oregon and Washington coastline on Friday. A
punch of gusty winds are expected, mainly along coastal regions, could
produce rough surf and additional isolated power outages. As precipitation
lifts northward and inland along a draped stationary boundary stretching
from the northern Rockies to British Columbia, heavy snow is possible from
the Washington Cascades to the western Montana, Idaho, and northwestern
Wyoming mountain ranges through early Sunday.November snowfall is also in the forecast for parts of the Northeast and
Great Lakes thanks to a potent upper-level low swinging over the region.
At the surface, a compact area of low pressure is currently looping around
the Great Lakes with an eventual southward trajectory over Lake Michigan
later today. Parts of eastern Wisconsin could see precipitation fall as
snow along with wind gusts up to 40 mph. Winter Weather Advisories have
been issued for snowfall amounts up to 3-4 inches. Meanwhile, a separate
area of low pressure developing near Long Island tonight is also expected
to track in a looping orientation across the Northeast through Friday,
while also producing periods of heavy snow. The greatest chances for at
least 6 inches of snowfall is found across northeast Pennsylvania and
southern New York, including the Pocono and Catskill mountains.
Additionally, a long-duration upslope snow event is underway across the
central Appalachians and anticipated to linger through at least early
Saturday. Up to a foot of snow is possible across the higher terrain of
West Virginia, Maryland, and southwest Pennsylvania. Light snow is also
expected to reach as far south as the higher ranges of North Carolina.The central and southern U.S. can expect much more tranquil conditions as
high pressure creates a void in the unsettled weather impacting both the
East and West coasts. However, below average temperatures are forecast
from the Mississippi Valley to the Southeast as breezy northwest flow
ushers in a colder airmass. This may lead to early morning frost and/or
freeze potential across the Southeast and Lower Mississippi Valley.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
