This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Nov 19 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Nov 19 2024 – 12Z Thu Nov 21 2024…Powerful Pacific low pressure system to produce significant high wind
impacts and heavy mountain snow across the Northwest, while a strong
atmospheric river takes aim at northern California by Wednesday……Potent storm system over the northern Plains to produce gusty winds and
locally heavy snow throughout the region before a redeveloping area of low
pressure brings unsettled weather to the Great Lakes, central
Appalachians, and Northeast from midweek onward……Heavy rain and flash flooding potential continues throughout portions
of the central and eastern Gulf Coast today…No shortage of active weather across the Nation this week as two separate
strong low pressure systems produce hazardous conditions in the form of
high winds, heavy rain, and snowfall. Starting with the Pacific Northwest,
a rapidly strengthening and extremely powerful low pressure system
forecast to pass roughly 300 miles west of the Olympic Peninsula tonight
is anticipated to begin impacting the region today. Damaging winds with
gusts up to 70 mph are possible across northern California, as well as
parts of Oregon and Washington, with the highest winds expected along the
coast and high terrain. These winds are likely to produce numerous power
outages and tree damage in the most impacted regions. When combined with
heavy snowfall at the higher elevations, blizzard conditions are in the
forecast throughout the Washington Cascades. As an associated frontal
boundary slides southeastward and stalls near northern California on
Wednesday, a deep and continuous plume of anomalous atmospheric moisture
content will flow into the Redwood Coast of California and northern
mountain ranges of the Golden State. Heavy rain and rising snow levels
will increase the threat of numerous floods and potential mudslides,
exacerbated by the duration of heavy rainfall through the end of the week.
In fact, WPC has issued a High Risk (level 4/4) of Excessive Rainfall
across parts of northwest California on Thursday in order to further
highlight this flooding threat. Residents and visitors throughout the
Northwest are urged to have multiple ways to receive warnings, listen to
advice from local officials, and avoid traveling through hazardous weather
conditions if possible.In the north-central U.S. another potent low pressure system is lifting
northward and producing unsettled weather of its own across the Upper
Midwest and northern Plains today. A tight pressure gradient being
produced by the storm is forecast to create strong winds across much of
Nebraska, eastern Montana, and the Dakotas through Wednesday with maximum
wind gusts up to 65 mph possible. Strong winds may also overlap with
moderate to locally heavy snow throughout North Dakota and northwest
Minnesota as the storm system stalls tonight over south-central Canada.
Probabilities for at least 6 inches of total snowfall are high (>70%)
across northern North Dakota. Meanwhile, scattered showers are forecast to
spread eastward into the Midwest, Great Lakes, and eventually the
Mid-Atlantic ahead of an advancing cold front today. By Wednesday night, a
redeveloping low pressure system rapidly strengthening over the Great
Lakes will help produce another round of precipitation over the Great
Lakes, central Appalachians and Northeast through the end of the week. The
greatest impacts from this precipitation is expected throughout the higher
elevations of West Virginia and western Maryland, where up to a foot of
snowfall is possible through Friday.Elsewhere, heavy rain and a risk for scattered flash floods remains a
concern across the central and eastern Gulf Coast as a cold front, weak
area of low pressure, and ample atmospheric moisture content spark
numerous showers and thunderstorms capable of containing intense rainfall
rates through tonight. The greatest risk for flash flooding specifically
exists from far eastern Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle, with
urban and poor drainage regions most susceptible to rapid water rises.Temperatures will be on a roller coaster ride this week as well above
average temperatures are found in the East before an advancing cold front
knocks readings down below average by Thursday. Meanwhile, cooler
temperatures over much of the West are forecast to return to near normal
as upper ridging builds into place.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
