This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Nov 10 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Nov 10 2024 – 12Z Tue Nov 12 2024…Wet Sunday for much of the eastern U.S., including beneficial rainfall
for the Northeast……An Atmospheric River will bring heavy coastal rain and high elevation
snowfall to portions of the Pacific Northwest beginning Sunday night……Above average temperatures will continue into next week for most of the
country…A broad area of showers and thunderstorms ahead of a low pressure
system/arcing frontal boundary through the Midwest south into the
Mississippi Valley early Sunday morning will continue eastward through the
day, bringing an expanding area of moderate to heavy rainfall over the
eastern U.S. The front will push eastward through the Ohio Valley/interior
Northeast and into New England and the Mid-Atlantic by Sunday evening,
bringing beneficial rainfall following many weeks of little to no
precipitation. Further south, the front will make slower progress and keep
additional storm chances focused over the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi
Valleys following heavy rain Saturday. Moisture streaming northward from
the Gulf, influenced in part by Tropical Storm Rafael, will lead to some
locally heavy downpours, with isolated flash flooding possible. A
localized Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) is in place over
central Louisiana where continued rainfall early Sunday over very
saturated grounds/ongoing flooding may lead to a few more scattered
instances of flash flooding. An additional area of showers and
thunderstorms is expected for portions of the coastal Carolinas/Georgia
and into Florida in vicinity of a wavy frontal boundary. Most of the
rainfall should come to an end by early Monday as the front begins to
clear the coast over the Northeast and moisture return decreases to the
south, though some lingering showers will remain possible for the interior
Northeast as a secondary cold front passes through.Some light to moderate lower elevation rain showers and higher elevation
snows will continue over portions of the Pacific Northwest/northern
Rockies through Sunday afternoon as a wavy frontal boundary lingers in the
region. Then, a stronger Pacific storm system/Atmospheric River will
approach the Pacific Northwest Sunday evening bringing moderate to heavy
coastal rains by Sunday night. This system will continue inland into the
day Monday with an expanding area of precipitation across the Pacific
Northwest, northern Great Basin/Rockies, and northern/central California.
Favorable upslope areas along the coastal mountain ranges may see 2-3″ of
rain, with some potentially moderate to heavy accumulating snows for
higher elevations of the Cascades, Sierra Nevada, and northern Rockies.
Another system just beyond the current forecast period looks to bring
another round of heavy rain and mountain snows mid-week.Most areas of the country will continue to see temperatures 5-15 degrees
above average over the next couple of days. Forecast highs Sunday range
from the 50s for the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, northern
Rockies/Plains, Great Lakes, and New England; the 60s in California,
central Plains, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic; and the 70s and 80s for the
Desert Southwest, Texas, Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Gulf Coast.
Much of the East Coast will see even warmer highs on Monday as rain clears
out, with highs rising into the 60s for coastal New England and the 70s
for the Mid-Atlantic, Carolinas, and Georgia. One region that will remain
colder will be portions of the central/southern Rockies and High Plains
where grounds remain snow covered following this past Friday’s historic
storm, with highs mainly in the 40s to low 50s.
![[Image of cumulative wind history]](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/refresh/AL182024_wind_history+png/084448_wind_history.png)
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6–
10
|
|
|
| 8–
14 |
|
|
| 3–
4 |
|
|
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
–
| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
