This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Nov 08 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Nov 08 2024 – 12Z Sun Nov 10 2024…Winter storm brings significant heavy snowfall and blizzard conditions
to portions of Colorado and New Mexico Friday……Showers and thunderstorms will bring the threat of flash flooding to
the central/southern Plains Friday and Lower Mississippi Valley Saturday……Above average temperatures continue for much of the country heading
into the weekend…A significant heavy snow event is underway over portions of the
central/southern Rockies and High Plains early Friday. A vigorous
upper-level trough plunging southward has ushered in colder air from the
north as a low pressure system over western Texas helps to funnel moist
air from the Gulf northwestward over the region. The compact nature of the
upper low will help to sustain very heavy snow rates of up to 1-2″/hr
leading to snowfall totals of 4-8 inches for much of eastern Colorado and
northeastern New Mexico, with locally higher totals of 12-18″ for the
Palmer Divide and Raton Mesa and 18-24″ over higher elevations of the
Front Range mountains/foothills. The combination of heavy snow rates and
gusty winds will lead to blizzard conditions for some locations and create
difficult to impossible travel conditions for the I-25 corridor and
eastern Plains, where numerous area roads are already closed. The most
intense snowfall should begin to taper off overnight Friday, with some
lighter snow possibly lingering into Saturday morning.Meanwhile to the east, on the warm side of the system, the influx of Gulf
moisture and increased instability will to lead to widespread showers and
thunderstorms producing very heavy rain over the next couple of days.
Storms currently over western Oklahoma and northwest Texas will continue
eastward along and ahead of an eastward moving cold front during the day
Friday. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) covers much of
Oklahoma and central/northern Texas where locally heavy downpours over
saturated grounds may lead to some scattered instances of flash flooding.
Showers and storms with more moderate rainfall and an isolated flash
flooding threat are expected more broadly over the central/southern
Plains. The low pressure system will move northeastward across the central
Plains Saturday with an expanding area of showers and thunderstorms along
an arcing occluded/cold front over the Midwest and Mississippi Valley.
Areas of the Lower Tennessee/Mississippi Valley will see more intense
storms feeding off higher instability and moisture streaming northward
from Hurricane Rafael over the Gulf of Mexico bringing additional rounds
of very heavy rainfall. Localized totals of 3-5″ over saturated grounds
from recent rains will lead to threat for more scattered instances of
flash flooding, with a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall in effect here as
well. While moisture from Rafael will help to increase this heavy rainfall
threat, the storm itself is currently forecast by the National Hurricane
Center to remain well offshore over the Gulf of Mexico and dissipate.A Pacific system will bring increasing precipitation chances to the
Pacific Northwest Friday/Saturday with moderate to heavy rainfall possible
and snow for high elevations of the local mountains. Precipitation chances
with lower elevation rain and high elevation snow will spread into the
northern Rockies on Saturday. Elsewhere, some widely scattered light
showers are possible head of cold fronts over the interior Northeast and
coastal Southeast Friday. Temperature-wise, most of the country will
continue to see above average conditions outside of the Four Corners
Region and central/southern Plains under the influence of the deep
upper-low. Forecast highs over the central/eastern U.S. Friday will range
from the 50s and low 60s for the northern Plains/Midwest/New England, 60s
across the Middle Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley, 60s and 70s for the
Mid-Atlantic, and 70s and 80s for the Southeast/Gulf Coast. Gusty winds
and extremely dry conditions over portions of the Mid-Atlantic and
southern New England have prompted Red Flag Warnings for the risk of
wildfires Friday. A cold front will bring cooler, more seasonable
temperatures to portions of the East Coast Saturday, with highs dropping
into the 40s and 50s for New England and the 50s and 60s in the
Mid-Atlantic. In the West, highs will be in the 50s and 60s for the
Northwest, Great Basin, and northern California with 70s into southern
California. As noted, temperatures will be much cooler and below average
in the Four Corners region as highs top out in the 40s and 50s, with 60s
and 70s into the Desert Southwest. Highs across the central/southern
Plains will be in the 30s and 40s Friday, warming a bit for the southern
High Plains into the 50s and 60s Saturday.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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10
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
