This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Nov 06 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Nov 06 2024 – 12Z Fri Nov 08 2024…Heavy rain threat emerging over the interior Southeast late today into
Thursday as tropical moisture associated with weak low over southeastern
Gulf of Mexico lifts northward...…Increasing threat for heavy snow to impact the central to southern
Rockies and nearby High Plains through the next couple of days……Watching the Florida Keys for impacts associated with Hurricane Rafael
forecast to pass not far too to the west tonight……Record warmth expected for the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England
today…As heavy rain threat across the Mississippi Valley gradually diminishes
today, tropical moisture associated with a weak low pressure circulation
centered over southeastern Gulf of Mexico is beginning to lift north
toward the Florida Panhandle under a broad channel of southerly flow
aloft. This weak low is a system somewhat separate from Hurricane Rafael
farther south in the Caribbean Sea. The tropical moisture associated with
the weak low is forecast to be drawn northward today, leading to heavy
rainfall tonight into Thursday morning across the interior section of the
Southeast. WPC currently places a moderate risk of heavy rain across
central Georgia into portions of South Carolina for this upcoming heavy
rain event. Meanwhile, moderate to locally heavy rain associated with a
cold front early this morning along the Mississippi and Ohio Valley early
this morning is forecast to become more scattered in nature as today
progresses.Meanwhile, Hurricane Rafael continues to intensify over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea while heading northwest toward western Cuba. The National
Hurricane Center calls for Rafael to be a category-2 hurricane as it
passes not too far to the west of Key West tonight into Thursday morning.
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the western portion of the Florida
Keys where increasing winds with passing squally downpours associated with
rainbands from Rafael can be expected by tonight.As Rafael threatens the Florida Keys, a winter storm is brewing across the
southern Rockies. A vigorous upper-level trough is plunging south toward
the Four Corners early this morning, ushering a surge of polar air into
the region while developing an area of snow over the central Rockies into
the central High Plains. The snow is expected to expand in coverage and
pickup intensity as today progresses. The compact and vigorous nature of
this upper low will help sustain the snow in the general vicinity of
central to southern Rockies into the nearby High Plains (mostly within
Colorado and New Mexico) as the upper low rotates and lingers. If the
upper low deepens more than expected, the associated snow could linger in
the same area farther out in time. There is potential for a foot of snow
to fall across the Front Range of Colorado, while a few feet of wet snow
is possible farther south across the higher elevations near the
Colorado-New Mexico border and into northern New Mexico. Winter Storm
Watches and Warnings as well as Winter Weather Advisories have been issued
for much of the aforementioned areas. In addition to producing snow, this
vigorous upper low could have changeable influences on the future track of
Rafael in the Gulf of Mexico. Please refer to NHC for the latest forecast
track on Rafael.As arctic air plunges into the region temperatures will fall to the 30s
and 40s across the valleys and drop to the single digits in the cool spots
for overnight lows. Make sure to bundle up. Strong wind gusts along with
lower moisture will increase the risk for wildfires over the next few
days. Red flag warnings are in effect for portions of coastal and interior
California. The Storm Prediction Center has Critical Fire Conditions
highlighted for southern California today with an extreme area in the
vicinity of Santa Clarita which will carry over into Thursday. In
contrast, high temperatures are forecast to challenge or break records
today across the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England as well as
scattered locations in the South ahead of the weakening cold front moving
across the Mississippi Valley.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
