This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Oct 29 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 29 2024 – 12Z Thu Oct 31 2024…Moderate to heavy snow over parts of the Northern/Central Rockies on
Tuesday……Temperatures will be 20 to 35 degrees above average over parts of the
Central Plains to the Great Lake/Ohio Valley……There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and Central/Southern Plains on Wednesday…A wave of low pressure along a front over the Great Basin/Central Rockies
will move northeastward to the Upper Mississippi Valley by Thursday. Ahead
of the front, temperatures will be 20 to 35 degrees above average over
parts of the Central Plains to the Great Lake/Ohio Valley. A warm front
extending from the Upper Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley moves
northeastward into Eastern Canada by Wednesday. Ahead of the warm front,
showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Great Lakes,
ending by Tuesday afternoon. On Tuesday evening, rain will develop over
parts of the Lower Great Lakes/Northeast and continue into Wednesday
afternoon.On Tuesday, a wave of low pressure will produce moderate to heavy snow
over parts of the Northern/Central Rockies and higher elevations of the
eastern Great Basin. Rain will also develop over parts of the lower
elevations of the Southwest, Great Basin, and Central Rockies.Moreover, weak onshore flow off the Pacific will produce rain over parts
of the Pacific Northwest through late Tuesday evening. Light snow will
continue on Wednesday over parts of the Northern/Central Rockies through
late Wednesday night.Meanwhile, southeasterly flow off the Gulf of Mexico will create scattered
showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Western Gulf Coast on Tuesday
into Wednesday. Similarly, easterly flow off the Atlantic will produce
showers and thunderstorms over parts of Florida through Thursday morning.Further, moist air flowing northward over the Plains will extend into the
Upper Great Lakes on Wednesday, creating showers and thunderstorms over
parts of the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley. Showers and
strong to severe thunderstorms will develop ahead of the front over parts
of the Middle Mississippi Valley to the Central/Southern Plains.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley to
Central/Southern Plains through Wednesday morning. The hazards associated
with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes.On Wednesday, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop along and
ahead of the front over parts of the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and
Central/Southern Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over these areas from Wednesday
through Thursday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms
are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.Furthermore, moderate to heavy rain will develop along the front parts of
the Mississippi Valley and the Central/Southern Plains. Therefore, the WPC
has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Mississippi Valley and parts of the Central/Southern Plains from
Wednesday through Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that experience rapid
runoff with heavy rain.Elsewhere, another front will come onshore over the Pacific Northwest and
California on Wednesday into early Thursday morning. The system will
produce rain and higher-elevation snow over parts of the Northwest into
Northern/Central California.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
