This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Oct 13 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Oct 13 2024 – 12Z Tue Oct 15 2024…Unsettled weather forecast from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley to the
Northeast over the next few days……Record-breaking heat continues across parts of the Southwest and much
of the south-central U.S. today……Locally heavy rain possible across southeast Florida…
A deepening low pressure system progressing from the Lower Great Lakes
today towards southern New England by Monday morning along with a trailing
upper-level trough will bring unsettled weather to much of the Great
Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to
dampen outdoor activities along and north of a sharp warm front extending
from northern Pennsylvania to southern New England today. Meanwhile, an
attached cold front will sweep across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys by
this evening, with a few thunderstorms potentially turning severe and
containing damaging wind gusts from central Tennessee to eastern West
Virginia. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Marginal Risk (level
1/5) of severe thunderstorms in order to highlight this potential. As the
area of low pressure strengthens further on Monday and Tuesday while
lifting northward into eastern Canada, cold air surging southward on the
backside of the system will allow for high elevation snow in the
Adirondacks and northern New England mountain ranges. Lake effect rain and
snow showers will also be evident as cold northerly flow persists through
midweek. An autumn chill will spread over much of the Midwest and eastern
U.S. following the passage of the aforementioned cold front this week as
high temperatures only reach the 50s and 60s, with widespread lows in the
30s and 40s.One more day of record-breaking heat is expected across the south-central
and southwestern U.S. today as mild air lingers south of the advancing
cold front. Highs into the 90s are anticipated throughout much of the Lone
Star State and Lower Mississippi Valley, with triple digits possible in
central Texas. 100s are also possible once again in Arizona before a
long-awaited gradual cooldown commences by Monday. Well above average
temperatures reorient early this week and are most apparent over the
western Gulf Coast, northern Rockies, and High Plains.Outside of the Northeast and Pacific Northwest, much of the Nation will be
void of notable precipitation over the next few days. However, another
localized area of heavy rain potential exists over southeast Florida today
before thunderstorm activity pushes east away from the Sunshine State on
Monday. A few thunderstorms may exhibit slow forward motion while
containing intense rainfall rates over the sensitive urban corridor of
southeast Florida, which may lead to localized flash flooding. A Marginal
Risk (level 1/4) of Excessive Rainfall is in effect to further highlight
this heavy rainfall threat.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
