This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Oct 12 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Oct 12 2024 – 12Z Mon Oct 14 2024…Record-breaking heat forecast this weekend from parts of the Southwest
eastward into the central and south-central United States……Developing storm system to bring unsettled weather to the Ohio Valley,
Great Lakes, and Northeast through early next week……Locally heavy rain possible over southeast Florida…
An expansive ridge of high pressure stretching from the Southwest to the
central and southern Plains will result in continued record-breaking heat
across portions of the Desert Southwest this weekend. High temperatures
are forecast to reach into the upper 90s and triple digits, which is well
above normal for this time of year. Meanwhile, anomalous late-season heat
will also span into the central and south-central U.S. today with highs
ranging from the upper 80s to upper 90s. Numerous daily record high
temperatures are possible. By Sunday, a cold front will squash the most
searing heat southward, bringing some quick relief to the central Plains.
South of the front, yet another day of record heat is likely from Arizona
eastward through central Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley where
highs will once again soar well into the 90s. Elsewhere, unseasonable
warmth presses eastward into the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast
this weekend, with the only cooler than normal spots largely confined to
the northern Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast. However, below average
temperatures will expand on Monday into much of the Midwest and East as a
strong cold front ushers in the next crisp autumn airmass.The aforementioned cold front is forecast to march eastward across the
Northeast today before stalling over the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic on
Sunday. An area of low pressure is then expected to develop along the
front, strengthening as it moves eastward into Pennsylvania by Sunday
night. This storm system will bring scattered to widespread showers and
thunderstorms to the larger region on Sunday, which may dampen outdoor
activities at times. A few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are
possible too, especially ahead of the advancing cold front from eastern
Kentucky to West Virginia. In fact, the Storm Prediction Center has issued
a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) to highlight this risk on Sunday. As the
low pressure system moves along the New England coastline on Monday, cold
air aloft will allow for light high elevation snow throughout parts of
northern New England.Following in the wake of Hurricane Milton, strong northeasterly flow aided
by high pressure over the southern Appalachians and northeast of the
Bahamas will keep the threat of coastal hazards and locally heavy rain in
the forecast along the Atlantic Coast of Florida. In particular, showers
and thunderstorms along the southeast Florida coastline may remain
somewhat stationary due to weak flow aloft, while also containing intense
rainfall rates. As a result, a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of Excessive
Rainfall remains in place for this area today and Sunday in order to bring
continued awareness to the threat of localized flash flooding.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
