This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Sep 18 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Sep 18 2024 – 12Z Fri Sep 20 2024…Very heavy rainfall and flash flooding possible in Montana today…
…Severe thunderstorms possible in the northern and central Plains and
Upper Midwest today and Thursday…A strong occluded low will bring hazardous weather to Montana today as it
lingers over the state. Strong upslope flow along the northern Rockies on
the backside of the low will result in showers and thunderstorms with very
heavy rainfall totals. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) is
in effect for portions of Montana where scattered flash flooding will be
possible. Wintry precipitation will also be possible in the high
elevations of the northern Rockies. In addition to precipitation hazards,
a strong pressure gradient in the vicinity of the central low will result
in strong, gusty winds across the region. High Wind Watches and Warnings
are in effect for portions of Montana and Wyoming where winds are forecast
to be 30-40 mph with gusts up 60 mph. The low will gradually lift north
into southern Canada Thursday and Friday, and rain and winds will begin to
relax.The strong low pressure system will also push a cold front across the
Plains and Upper Midwest through Friday. A line of showers and
thunderstorms will move east ahead of the cold front, and the environment
will support the development of scattered severe thunderstorms. The Storm
Prediction Center has highlighted portions of the Plains and Upper Midwest
with a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms (level 2/5) today and again on
Thursday. Potential severe storm hazards will include damaging wind gusts,
large hail, and a few tornadoes. Shower and thunderstorm coverage will
expand into the Great Lakes and Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys on Friday
as the cold front continues to trek east.Elsewhere, two coastal lows will sandwich the continental United States,
one moving south along the West Coast and one moving north along the East
Coast. The West Coast low will bring precipitation to the Northwest this
morning, then to the Great Basin and California later today into Thursday.
Precipitation will fall mainly in the form of showers and thunderstorms,
but some wintry precipitation will be possible in the Sierra Nevada. The
low will weaken on Friday, and precipitation will taper off. The East
Coast low will gradually deepen offshore of the Mid-Atlantic over the next
few days with a slow-moving frontal boundary extending southwest from the
low. Showers and storms will be possible for the Mid-Atlantic, coastal
Northeast, Southeast, and Florida. This system will also produce gusty
winds over the coastal waters, which has prompted Small Craft and Coastal
Flood Advisories along the Mid-Atlantic Coast.Temperature-wise, the West will experience well below average temperatures
in the wake of the strong frontal system in the Plains, while the Central
U.S. experiences well above average temperatures with southerly flow ahead
of the Plains system. Highs over the next few days will only be in the 60s
and 70s for much of the West, while highs in the Plains and Midwest reach
the 80s and 90s. A few near-record high temperatures will be possible in
the southern Plains where highs will approach 100 degrees. Above average
temperatures will also be observed in the Northeast under an upper level
ridge, and near to slightly below normal temperatures will be observed in
the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
