Summary Of the Markets Today:
- The Dow closed down 16 points or 0.04%, (Closed at 41,606, New Historic high 41.835)
- Nasdaq closed up 0.20%,
- S&P 500 closed up 0.03%, (Closed at 5,635, New Historic high 5,671)
- Gold $2,595 down $13.90,
- WTI crude oil settled at $71 up $1.27,
- 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.644 up 0.023 points,
- USD index $100.98 up $0.22,
- Bitcoin $59,743 up $1,826 or 3.14%,
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing
Today’s Highlights
Stocks finished mostly flat on Tuesday as investors remained uncertain about the size of the Federal Reserve’s expected interest rate cut, which is set to be announced on Wednesday. Federal Reserve Meeting The Fed’s two-day policy meeting began on Tuesday, with a rate cut decision expected on Wednesday. Investors are debating whether the Fed will cut rates by 0.25% or 0.50%. As of Tuesday afternoon, traders saw a 65% chance of a 0.50% cut and a 35% chance of a 0.25% cut. Economic Data August retail sales data came in stronger than expected, potentially influencing the Fed’s decision. This was the last major economic report before the Fed’s announcement. Intel shares rose after securing Amazon as a customer for AI chips from its foundry business. Microsoft stock gained after announcing a new $60 billion share buyback program and a 10% dividend increase.
Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – September 2024 Economic Forecast: One Recession Flag Removed With Three Remaining
Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:
Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August 2024 is up 2.1% from August 2023 – up 1.3% inflation-adjusted. Seems to me there is no trend line which means a continuation of the weak retail sales growth going forward.
In August 2024, industrial production rose 0.0% year-over-year with components manufacturing up 0.2% year-over-year, utilities down 0.9% year-over-year, and mining up 0.1% year-over-year. Capacity utilization moved up to 78.0 percent in August, a rate that is 1.7 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2023) average. I see literally no re-shoring of manufacturing capacity – and manufacturing remains in a recession in the US.
Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:
- Which Industries Perform Best and Worst After Interest Rate Cuts?
- Can Spain Achieve its 11 GW Hydrogen Target by 2030?
- New Owner of Baker Hughes’ Russian Assets Raises Well Inventory
- The Latest Oil Price Crash Appears to Have Come to an End
- U.S. Energy Department Short on Cash to Refill SPR at Low Prices
- S&P 500 closes little changed Tuesday after notching all-time high ahead of key Fed decision: Live updates
- The Fed’s biggest interest rate call in years happens Wednesday. Here’s what to expect
- Stock market setting itself up for disappointment as it hits all-time high ahead of the Fed
- Bitcoin climbs above $60,000 ahead of Fed rate decision
- Struggling bitcoin miners may be revived by Fed rate decision, regardless of cut size
Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.
The Market in Perspective
| Here are the headlines moving the markets. | |
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Which Industries Perform Best and Worst After Interest Rate Cuts?Fed chair Jerome Powell has signaled that interest rate cuts are on the horizon, amid a cooling labor market marked by fewer job additions and rising unemployment. Today, the benchmark interest rate stands at 5.25- 5.50%, up from near-zero levels in 2022. Historically, equities have performed better after gradual rate cuts compared to swift reductions typically seen during economic crises. Sectors of the economy are also impacted in different ways, due to shifting consumer demand and interest rate sensitivity. This graphic, via Visual Capitalist’s… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Which-Industries-Perform-Best-and-Worst-After-Interest-Rate-Cuts.html |
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Turkmenistan’s High Gas Prices Hinder Export DealsIt’s been just over a year since Turkmenistan, a country boasting the world’s fourth or fifth biggest largest natural gas reserves, ended decades of indecision and finally announced it was serious about exporting to Western markets. For just about any other country, such an announcement would have touched off a frenzy of courtship by countries and companies interested in developing export deals. But with Turkmenistan the process has been slower and more difficult than would normally be expected, as recent events have highlighted.… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Turkmenistans-High-Gas-Prices-Hinder-Export-Deals.html |
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Italy Shuts the Door on New Oil ExplorationItay will no longer grant concessions for oil and condensate exploration and production, a draft of a new government decree shows. The decree, seen by Reuters, specifies that the oil exploration and production ban will only apply to new concessions—not existing ones that have already secured government approval. The ban is part of Italy’s green ambitions, which include abandoning coal-fired electricity by the end of 2025 in favor of gas-fired power plants. To that end, Italy approved four new gas-fired power plants in the past… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Italy-Shuts-the-Door-on-New-Oil-Exploration.html |
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Ofgem Cracks Down on Energy SuppliersThe UK’s fourth-largest energy supplier, OVO, has agreed to a £2.37m settlement following a regulatory investigation by Ofgem. The energy watchdog uncovered significant delays in addressing customer complaints, with some unresolved for up to 18 months. In addition, OVO failed to action the Energy Ombudsman’s rulings in certain cases. As part of the settlement, the London-listed supplier will directly compensate 1,395 affected customers with £378,512. An additional £2m will be paid to the Energy Industry Voluntary Redress… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Ofgem-Cracks-Down-on-Energy-Suppliers.html |
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Can Spain Achieve its 11 GW Hydrogen Target by 2030?Spain is an established green energy leader in Europe, with its significant wind and solar generation capacity giving renewable power generation over a 50% share of the nation’s total electricity mix. The next phase of Spain’s decarbonization strategy appears to be harnessing its renewable potential for hydrogen. According to research by Rystad Energy, Spain can achieve approximately 5 GW of installed electrolyzer capacity by 2030. However, to meet its target of 11 GW—the highest in the European Union (EU)—the country will… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Can-Spain-Achieve-its-11-GW-Hydrogen-Target-by-2030.html |
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Dutch Government Boosts Grid Operator TenneT with €19B LoanThe Dutch government is stepping in again to support TenneT, the state-owned grid operator, with a new supplementary €19 billion bridge loan. This comes after a failed deal to sell TenneT’s German network to Berlin. The loan will help meet rising electricity demand and support grid investments through 2026. Earlier this year, the Dutch state already loaned €25 billion to TenneT, which is staring down the barrel of significant capital needs due to the expansion of its power infrastructure. The latest loan consists of a €2 billion… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Dutch-Government-Boosts-Grid-Operator-TenneT-with-19B-Loan.html |
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Burning Oil Tanker in Red Sea “Successfully Towed To Safe Area”The European Union’s Operation Aspides naval force began an urgent salvage operation to tow the burning oil tanker Sounion in the southern Red Sea to safety, with hopes of preventing an environmental disaster. “The salvage of the MV SOUNION is a complex operation and consists of various phases. The tug boats have successfully connected to the vessel and the towing of the MV SOUNION to a safe location is in progress,” EU’s naval mission in the Red Sea, Aspides, wrote in an X post on Sunday. Update on the MV SOUNION… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Middle-East/Burning-Oil-Tanker-in-Red-Sea-Successfully-Towed-To-Safe-Area.html |
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New Owner of Baker Hughes’ Russian Assets Raises Well InventoryOFS Technologies, the company created after buying out the assets of Baker Hughes in Russia in 2022, is currently working to boost its inventory of wells to lay the foundations for Russia to increase its oil production when needed, the firm’s chief executive officer David Gadzhimirzaev told Russian news agency Interfax in an interview on Tuesday. Russia is actively working to raise the number of oil wells to be ready to boost production when the time and conditions are right, the executive told Interfax on the sidelines of an energy… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/New-Owner-of-Baker-Hughes-Russian-Assets-Raises-Well-Inventory.html |
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France’s Electricity Prices Turn Negative Amid Poor DemandPower prices in France turned negative for hours on Tuesday morning amid tepid demand in a struggling economy and increased renewables generation. French intraday power prices traded at as low as -$22.25 (-20 euros) per megawatt-hour (MWh) on the Epex Spot exchange, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. So far this year, France’s power demand has been undershooting projections by grid operator RTE as the French and European economies are seeing little – if any – growth. France, which derives about 70% of its electricity from… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Frances-Electricity-Prices-Turn-Negative-Amid-Poor-Demand.html |
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The Latest Oil Price Crash Appears to Have Come to an EndOil prices have fallen dramatically in recent weeks, but supply disruptions and optimism around a potential U.S. interest rate cut appear to have halted that downward momentum.- The marked shift in oil sentiment recently has been to a great deal prompted by a widespread concern of Chinese demand peaking this or next year as LNG displaces diesel in long-haul trucking, EV sales overtaking conventional cars since July and rail expansion eating into jet fuel recovery.- Chinese refinery runs have been declining for five straight months, with the National… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Latest-Oil-Price-Crash-Appears-to-Have-Come-to-an-End.html |
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Hedge Funds Have Never Been This Pessimistic About the Oil MarketHedge funds and other asset managers have never been more pessimistic about the outlook for petroleum prices, as signs multiply that the major industrial economies are losing momentum according to energy analyst John Kemp. Investors have also concluded Saudi Arabia and its OPEC+ allies have run out of options and either cannot or will not restrict their own production further to offset the slowdown in consumption growth and slide in prices. Hedge funds and other money managers sold the equivalent of 128 million barrels in the six most important… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Hedge-Funds-Have-Never-Been-This-Pessimistic-About-the-Oil-Market.html |
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U.S. Energy Department Short on Cash to Refill SPR at Low PricesThe price of the U.S. WTI crude oil has finally stayed in the low $70s per barrel for a sustainable period of time, allowing the Biden Administration to ramp up the refill of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), which it had said would do at prices of $79 a barrel or below. WTI Crude is now at $70 per barrel as of Tuesday morning, after spending days below that threshold. But the Energy Department has just $841 million left to buy crude for the SPR, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday, citing an estimate by ClearView Energy Partners, a consulting firm.… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-Energy-Department-Short-on-Cash-to-Refill-SPR-at-Low-Prices.html |
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OPEC Claims Taxation Is a Severely Underrated Driver of Gasoline PricesTaxation in various major oil-consuming countries is a significantly more important factor in determining prices at the pump than generally thought, OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais wrote in an article published on Tuesday. “Most of what you pay at the pump is taxes” is the headline of the piece published on OPEC’s website, in which the head of the cartel reiterates his position that crude oil and petroleum products are vital for the normal functioning of the world as we know it. “The narrative we often hear is that… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/OPEC-Claims-Taxation-Is-a-Severely-Underrated-Driver-of-Gasoline-Prices.html |
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Chinese Refineries Go Bankrupt Amid Plummeting MarginsSlumping refining margins amid tepid fuel demand in China have already claimed victims among the refineries in the Shandong province, where two plants operated by chemicals giant Sinochem were declared bankrupt in recent days. Zhenghe Group Co and Shandong Huaxing Petrochemical Group Co were declared bankrupt after creditors failed to agree on restructuring plans for the refineries, local court statements showed on Tuesday, as carried by Bloomberg. A third refinery operated by Sinochem in the Shandong province, home to China’s independent… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Chinese-Refineries-Go-Bankrupt-Amid-Plummeting-Margins.html |
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South Sudan Could Soon Resume Exporting Crude Oil via SudanSouth Sudan and Sudan discussed the resumption of South Sudanese crude oil exports via a port in Sudan and noted the progress made, following months of shut-in crude flows from South Sudan due to a ruptured pipeline in war-torn Sudan. South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir met with the Chairman of Sudan’s Sovereign Council, Abdel Fattah Al Burhan, and discussed the resumption of oil exports through Sudan, following four months of work on the oil infrastructure, the president’s office said in a statement on Monday. “Foreign Affairs… Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/South-Sudan-Could-Soon-Resume-Exporting-Crude-Oil-via-Sudan.html |
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S&P 500 closes little changed Tuesday after notching all-time high ahead of key Fed decision: Live updatesThe broader index was flat after hitting a record high earlier Tuesday as the market awaited the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut decision. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/16/stock-market-today-live-updates.html |
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The Fed’s biggest interest rate call in years happens Wednesday. Here’s what to expectWhile markets have made up their mind that the Fed is going to cut, there’s a vigorous debate over how far policymakers will go. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/17/the-feds-biggest-interest-rate-call-in-years-happens-wednesday-heres-what-to-expect.html |
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Alaska-Hawaiian merger clears DOT review, but airlines must preserve miles, routesThe two airlines can begin the process of closing their $1.9 billion merger. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/17/alaska-airlines-hawaiian-airlines-merger-review.html |
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Fed to cut rates by a quarter point with a soft landing expected, according to CNBC Fed SurveyThe survey shows 84% of the 27 respondents, including economists, fund managers and strategists, see the Fed cutting by a quarter percentage point. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/17/fed-to-cut-rates-by-a-quarter-point-with-a-soft-landing-expected-according-to-cnbc-fed-survey.html |
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Stock market setting itself up for disappointment as it hits all-time high ahead of the FedAs Wall Street gears up for potential rate cuts from the Fed this week, JPMorgan traders say a quarter-point cut may only exacerbate market uncertainty. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/17/stock-market-setting-itself-up-for-disappointment-as-it-hits-all-time-high-ahead-of-the-fed.html |
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Harris-Trump election has Big Tech ‘at a crossroads’ after slump in dealmakingWith regulators making it hard for large tech companies to do significant deals, M&A transaction volume in the industry continues to drop. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/17/tech-dealmakers-skeptical-that-ma-will-pick-up-after-election.html |
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The Fed is preparing to cut interest rates. How to revamp your fixed income investmentsThe central bank’s highly anticipated rate decision is due Wednesday, and money market funds’ yields are about to take a hit. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/17/the-fed-will-soon-cut-rates-how-to-revamp-fixed-income-investments.html |
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DoubleLine’s Gundlach says the Fed needs to cut rates quickly, sees a half-point reduction WednesdayDoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach said the Federal Reserve needs to ease policy quickly amid an economic slowdown. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/17/doublelines-gundlach-says-the-fed-needs-to-cut-rates-quickly-sees-a-half-point-reduction-wednesday.html |
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Bitcoin climbs above $60,000 ahead of Fed rate decisionBitcoin reclaimed $60,000 on Tuesday as investors awaited details on the Federal Reserve’s rate cutting plans. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/17/crypto-market-today.html |
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Apple is in talks with JPMorgan for bank to take over card from Goldman SachsWhile the talks are early and could falter, the move could mean that the country’s largest credit card issuer may be about to grow even larger. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/17/apple-jpmorgan-creditcard-goldman-sachs.html |
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Sean ‘Diddy’ Combs faces racketeering and sex trafficking charges. Read the indictmentCombs was arrested amid a wave of lawsuits against him alleging sexual assault and misconduct. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/17/sean-diddy-combs-arrested-by-federal-agents-in-new-york.html |
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Judge rules Trump Media breached stock contract with early investorDonald Trump will soon be free to start selling his DJT shares, but the Republican presidential nominee recently said he will not do so. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/17/djt-trump-media-stock-lawsuit-lockup.html |
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The Apple Watch Series 10 offers mostly minor upgrades, but faster charging is a big plusThere are lots of refinements to the new Apple Watch Series 10 such as a bigger screen, faster charging and new polished titanium models. Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/17/apple-watch-series-10-review.html |
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War Preparations Build After 9 Killed, 2700+ Wounded In Israel’s Pager Attack On HezbollahUpdate(1445ET): Official Lebanese Health Ministry figures are that nine people were killed in the simultaneous pager explosions, including a young girl, and some 2,750 wounded. The Lebanese government has identified “Israeli aggression” as being behind the attack, while Hezbollah also says it holds Israel “fully responsible”. Israel has yet to issue official comment, but there are several reports from the region that war preparations are underway. But the border has been surprisingly quiet in the hours after. Israel’s Channel 14 is reporting that “senior Israeli military officials are preparing for a third Hezbollah war which is expected to begin almost immediately.” The US State Department has said the US “was not aware of this operation and was not involved” in the attack. The Biden administration says it is “still gathering information”. The WSJ has offered some initial details on the sophisticated attack, which Lebanese and Arabs have condemned as a major ‘terror attack’. “The affected pagers were from a new shipment that the group received in recent days, people familiar with the matter said,” WSJ writes. “A Hezbollah official said hundreds of fighters had such devices, speculating that malware may have caused the devices to explode. The official said some people felt the pagers heat up and dispose … Read more at: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/hundreds-wounded-dead-beirut-after-israel-remotely-detonates-hezbollah-pagers |
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Nassim Taleb: People Aren’t Seeing The Real De-DollarizationAuthored by Mike Maharrey via MoneyMetals.com, It’s not a “black swan” event. In fact, it’s playing out right before our eyes and was entirely predictable. The world is slowly but surely spurning the dollar.
But most people haven’t noticed. De-dollarization might seem like a wild conspiracy theory, but it is happening. Countries worldwide are trying to limit their exposure to the greenback, and the dollar’s clout is slowly ebbing. No, the dollar isn’t on the verge of collapse due to a major trauma. It’s more like death by a million papercuts. Nassim Taleb, best known for his book The Black Swan, said in a post on X that “people are not seeing the real de-dollarization in progress.< … Read more at: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/nassim-taleb-people-arent-seeing-real-de-dollarization |
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“FAA Bureaucracy Will Be The Reason We Never Become Multiplanetary!”“Does the Biden Administration have it in for Elon Musk?.. Absolutely. Last week:
One week later, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) proposed slapping Elon Musk’s SpaceX with $633,009 in civil penalties. This time, according to the federal agency, SpaceX “allegedly failed to follow its license requirements during two launches in 2023, in accordance with statutorily-set civil penalty guidelines.” The FAA’s issue with SpaceX…
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Momentum Investing Gives You An Edge… Until It Doesn’tAuthored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com, Since 2020, momentum investing has generated significantly better returns than other strategies. Such is not surprising, given the massive amounts of stimulus injected into the financial system. However, Brett Arends for Marketwatch noted in 2021 that momentum investing can give you an edge. To wit:
While momentum investing is appealing in a liquidity-driven bull market, is it always the best strategy? As noted in the “Best Way To Invest:”
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What will a US interest rate cut mean for me?The Federal Reserve is poised to cut interest rates for the first time in four years. Read more at: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgl474nrygo |
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Guardian in talks to sell world’s oldest Sunday paperThe Guardian owner is in exclusive talks to sell the Observer newspaper to Tortoise Media. Read more at: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy80n75g5w1o |
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Brexit deal impact in UK is worsening, warn economistsThe findings come from a report covering the three-year period after the Brexit deal was signed. Read more at: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd988p00z1no |
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US Fed meeting begins. Does stock market need a 25 or 50 bps rate cut?The US Federal Reserve begins a crucial two-day meeting to decide on interest rate cuts. Investors are keenly watching whether Jerome Powell will opt for a 25 or 50 basis point cut. The outcome will significantly impact stock prices, depending on Powell’s motivations and the economic outlook. Read more at: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/us-fed-meeting-begins-today-does-the-stock-market-need-a-25-or-50-bps-rate-cut/articleshow/113410085.cms |
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100 days of Modi 3.0 government: Sensex up 6,300 points, 18 smallcaps turn multibaggerIn the first 100 days of Modi 3.0, Sensex surged 8.2% with BSE Smallcap up 18%. Top smallcaps like Refex Industries soared 221%. Investors are cautious due to tax hikes and policy risks. Read more at: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/100-days-of-modi-3-0-government-sensex-up-6300-points-18-smallcaps-turn-multibagger/articleshow/113416196.cms |
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Nilesh Shah’s market musing: Experienced investors making less money, how long can this continue?Experienced investors are making less money compared to retail investors in the current market, says Nilesh Shah of Kotak Mahindra AMC. He attributes this to conservative betting and warns of potential corrections in overvalued stocks. Shah advises moderating return expectations as market fundamentals remain strong. Read more at: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/nilesh-shahs-market-musing-experienced-investors-making-less-money-how-long-can-this-continue/articleshow/113410621.cms |
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Oil prices end higher after exploding-pagers attack on Hezbollah members in LebanonOil futures finished higher Tuesday, appearing to get a lift after pagers carried by Hezbollah operatives in Lebanon exploded around the same time in an apparent attack — raising fears of a broader Middle East conflict that could threaten crude flows from the region. Read more at: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-steady-as-traders-monitor-demand-outlook-await-fed-decision-3add9f6f?mod=mw_rss_topstories |
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Struggling bitcoin miners may be revived by Fed rate decision, regardless of cut sizeWhether the Federal Reserve delivers a 25 or 50 basis point rate cut, it could mean a turnaround for bitcoin miners, which have been struggling so far this year, market participants said. Read more at: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/struggling-bitcoin-miners-may-be-revived-by-fed-rate-decision-regardless-of-cut-size-db64c987?mod=mw_rss_topstories |
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Harris’s $25K for home buyers would lift prices, but her housing plan has advantages, economist saysCritics of Kamala Harris’s proposal to give $25,000 to first-time home buyers say it would boost demand and drive prices higher, and one economist who has studied such subsidies agrees. The economist also praises other aspects of the Democratic presidential nominee’s housing proposals. Read more at: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/harriss-25k-for-home-buyers-would-lift-prices-but-her-housing-plan-has-advantages-economist-says-b4cde70b?mod=mw_rss_topstories |
