This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Sep 16 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Sep 16 2024 – 12Z Wed Sep 18 2024…Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight will bring wind and heavy rain to the
Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic……A strong upper low will bring unsettled weather and well below normal
temperatures to the West with high elevation snow in the Sierra Nevada and
Intermountain West……Severe thunderstorms possible for the Northern and Central High Plains
Tuesday…While Francine’s remnants have been dissipating over the Southeast,
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight has been strengthening off the Southeast
Coast. This disturbance is forecast to bring gusty winds and heavy rain to
portions of the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic and dangerous coastal and beach
conditions to much of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts. The forward
motion of Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight will be slowed down by strong
high pressure over the Northeast, which will increase the chance of heavy
rainfall totals in the Carolinas today. Flash flooding will be a concern,
especially in the eastern Carolinas where the highest rainfall totals are
forecast, and flooding could have locally significant impacts. This
disturbance is forecast to gradually move north across the Carolinas into
the Mid-Atlantic, bringing a threat of locally heavy rainfall to the
region mid-week.In the West, a deep upper low will bring unsettled weather and well below
normal temperatures to the region this week. The upper low is accompanied
by a strong surface frontal system that will push east across the
Intermountain West today and into the Plains Tuesday afternoon. This
system will bring widespread precipitation chances and gusty winds to much
of the West. Precipitation will fall mainly in the form of showers and
thunderstorms, but temperatures will be cold enough for the high
elevations of the Sierra Nevada and Intermountain West to see some early
season snow. Winter Weather Advisories are in effect through this evening
for the Sierra Nevada above 8000 feet where up to 4 inches of snow may
fall, and Wind Advisories are in effect through this evening for portions
of the Southwest where wind gusts could exceed 45 mph.The surface low pressure system is forecast to strengthen in the lee of
the Rockies over Wyoming and Montana, and will bring a threat of scattered
severe thunderstorms to the northern and central High Plains Tuesday
afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted these
areas with a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms (level 2/5), and the main
storm hazards will be severe wind gusts and hail. Showers and
thunderstorms will push east across the Plains Tuesday night and move
towards the Mississippi Valley on Wednesday.Temperatures will have a broad range across the United States over the
next few days. The deep upper low will result in well below normal
temperatures in the West through at least mid-week, with the coldest
anomalies over the Great Basin and California where high temperatures will
be as low as 15-25 degrees below normal. On the flip side, temperatures
will be well above normal in the Central U.S. and Northeast. High
temperatures will generally be in the 80s and 90s for these regions. Below
normal temperatures are also forecast for the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic
today and Tuesday due to expected precipitation and cloud cover, but
temperatures should return to near normal for these regions by Wednesday.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
