This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Sep 14 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Sep 14 2024 – 12Z Mon Sep 16 2024…Heavy rain and flash flood threat will continue for portions of the
Southeast this weekend, then the flash flood threat will shift to the
Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic early next week……A strong low pressure system will bring unsettled weather to the West
late this weekend/early next week, with wintry precipitation expected at
high elevations……Well above average temperatures for the Central U.S. and Northeast;
well below average temperatures for the West…Though it is now post-tropical, Francine will continue to bring a threat
for heavy rain and flash flooding to portions of the Southeast through
Sunday. The central area of low pressure will gradually sink south towards
the Gulf Coast with a stationary boundary extending to the Southeast Coast
and a cold front extending back towards the Southern Plains. The
stationary boundary will be the main focus for convection this weekend,
and training showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall will
create a threat for scattered instances of flash flooding. There is a
Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) for portions of Arkansas,
Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia today and Sunday. Flash Flood
Watches are in effect for much of this area, and urban/poor drainage areas
and areas that already received heavy rainfall over the past few days will
be most at risk for flash flooding.A separate area of low pressure will strengthen along the stationary
boundary extending from the Southeast Coast, which will maintain shower
and thunderstorm chances from Florida to the Carolinas and southern
Mid-Atlantic through early next week. This low pressure system is forecast
to gradually track north along the East Coast early next week and will
bring a heavy rain and flash flood threat to portions of the Carolinas and
Mid-Atlantic. There is a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) for
eastern North Carolina on Monday where scattered instances of flash
flooding will be possible.In the West, an unsettled pattern is forecast to develop this weekend as a
strong upper low pushes a frontal system across the region. The system
will nudge into the Pacific Northwest today, then move across northern
California, the Great Basin, and the northern Rockies Sunday and Monday.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms will accompany this system, and there
is a broad Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 1/4) in effect for
portions of the Northern Rockies and Great Basin on Monday. This system
will also usher in well below normal temperatures, which will allow for
wintry precipitation to fall at higher elevations. A Winter Weather
Advisory is already in effect for portions of the Sierra Nevada where up
to 4 inches of snow may fall Sunday night and Monday. Precipitation
chances will also increase across the Southwest/Four Corners region late
this weekend into early next week as tropical moisture streams north ahead
of Tropical Cyclone Ileana.Temperatures this weekend will have a large range across the United States
with well above average temperatures in the Central U.S. and Northeast and
well below average temperatures under the strong upper low in the West.
High temperatures will be in the 80s and 90s for the Central U.S. and
Northeast through Monday, which is more than 15 degrees above average for
some areas in the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. High temperatures in the West
will be near to slightly below average today, then drop to 15 to 25
degrees below average in Oregon, California, and Nevada by Monday. Highs
in the 50s will be common in the Great Basin, and highs will likely only
reach the 30s and 40s in the Sierra Nevada.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
