This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Sep 13 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Sep 13 2024 – 12Z Sun Sep 15 2024…Francine will continue to weaken while bringing a heavy rain and flash
flood threat to the Southeast over the next couple days……Above average temperatures will develop across the Central U.S. and
Northeast while below normal temperatures persist in the Southeast and
West…Francine will continue to weaken today as its low pressure center meanders
east across northern Arkansas. A stationary boundary extending from the
occluded system will remain parked across the Southeast and provide a
focus for showers and thunderstorms through Saturday. The storm’s slow
motion will result in multiple days of heavy rain for the Southeast, which
will create a flash flooding risk. There is a Slight Risk of Excessive
Rainfall (level 2/4) today from western Tennessee through northern and
central Alabama to central/southern Georgia, with an embedded Moderate
Risk (level 3/4) for portions of northern and central Alabama. Flooding
will be most likely in urban and poor drainage areas and areas that
receive training/repeat convection, and locally considerable flash
flooding may be possible, especially where soils are already saturated
from previous rainfall. The flash flood threat will continue for these
areas on Saturday with another Slight Risk (level 2/4). Flood Watches are
in effect for much of the risk area. If you encounter flooding, turn
around, don’t drown. It is never safe to walk or drive into flood waters,
and most flood fatalities occur in vehicles. Isolated severe thunderstorms
will also be possible for parts of the Southeast today where the Storm
Prediction Center has issues a Marginal Risk of Severe Thunderstorms
(level 1/5). Severe storm hazards may include a few tornadoes or severe
wind gusts.The flash flood and severe weather threats associated with Francine will
gradually decease through the weekend, and the remnants will begin moving
south Saturday night and stall along the Gulf Coast on Sunday. Another
area of low pressure is forecast to form along the stalled frontal
boundary off the Southeast Coast, which will create stormy weather from
Florida through the eastern Carolinas through this weekend into early next
week.In the north, an occluded low pressure system north of Montana will push
further into Canada today and Saturday and will bring a weak cold front
across the northern and central Plains. Precipitation will linger on the
backside of the low in the northern Rockies and northern High Plains this
morning, and cold air will allow for snow and mixed wintry precipitation
at higher elevations. Shower and thunderstorm chances will accompany the
weak cold front through Saturday. Strong high pressure over the Northeast
will prevent the front from making significant eastward progress, and the
front will weaken and dissipate on Sunday.In the West, a stronger Pacific frontal system will approach the coast
later today and move inland over the weekend. Precipitation chances will
begin in the Northwest late tonight/early Saturday and spread across the
Great Basin and northern California Sunday into Monday. Precipitation
chances will also increase across portions of the Southwest on Sunday as
tropical moisture from Ileana spreads north.Temperatures will be on the rise this weekend across the Central U.S. and
Northeast, with high temperatures forecast to reach values as high as
10-15 degrees above normal for this time of year. Highs in the 80s and 90s
will be common for the Plains, Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, and Northeast.
Precipitation and cloud cover from Francine will keep temperatures below
average for much of the Southeast. Temperatures across much of the West
will be near to slightly below average through Saturday. On Sunday, the
Pacific frontal system will usher in cooler, unsettled weather, and
temperatures will drop to well below normal along the West Coast.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
