This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Sep 12 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Sep 12 2024 – 12Z Sat Sep 14 2024…Heavy rainfall from Francine will spread into the Mid-South, Tennessee
Valley, and Southeast today while the severe weather threat shifts east
into Alabama and the Florida Panhandle……A round of moderate to heavy rain and strong thunderstorms with move
across the northern High Plains with high-elevation snow in the northern
Rockies……Elevated to critical fire weather concerns extend across much of the
High Plains and into portions of the central Great Basin…Tropical Storm Francine continues to weaken and lift north early this
morning into southern Mississippi at the same time spreading gusty winds
and heavy rain across the region. The system is forecast to lose remaining
tropical characteristics later today as it pushes northward into the
Mid-South and connects with nearby frontal boundaries, while still
producing areas of locally heavy rain and chances for severe
thunderstorms. Tornadoes will be the main severe weather hazard through
tonight, potentially impacting parts of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle
along a slow-moving warm front. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe weather for this region. The greatest
threat for considerable flash flooding exists across parts of northern and
central Alabama, where a slow-moving line of showers and thunderstorms
capable of containing intense rainfall rates could linger for several
hours and produce localized totals up to 10 inches. Heavy rain is also
possible from northeast Arkansas through the Tennessee Valley and into the
Florida Panhandle today. Looking ahead to the start of the weekend,
showers and localized torrential downpours will remain possible throughout
much of the Southeast as lingering tropical moisture and stationary
frontal boundaries stay draped across the region. Residents are advised to
have multiple ways of receiving warnings and never drive across flooded
roadways.A potent storm system is also impacting parts of the West and High Plains
as an area of low pressure organizes in eastern Montana today. Areas of
heavy rain and severe weather are possible across the state. Gusty winds
and large hail associated with thunderstorms are most likely to impact
eastern Montana and far western North Dakota through tonight, with heavy
rain a potential weather hazard in central/western Montana. Additionally,
cool temperatures in the high elevations of the northern Rockies could
lead to early-season mountain snowfall for western Montana and the greater
Yellowstone National Park area. The other aspect of this system will
correspond with strong southerly winds throughout the High Plains. Wind
gusts up to 50 mph are possible, which could result in a few power
outages. These strong winds will also increase the fire weather threat
across the region as dry vegetation and low relative humidity create a
ripe environment for erratic fire behavior. Red Flag Warnings and/or Wind
Advisories span from southern Utah to North Dakota.Elsewhere, high pressure will keep much of the Great Lakes and Northeast
dry as high temperatures increased into the 80s through the beginning of
this weekend. Warm and dry weather will also be found throughout the
Desert Southwest and southern Plains, with high temperatures into the
mid-to-upper 90s. Conversely, below average temperatures in the wake of a
cold front will be felt across much of the West to end the week.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports will Resume in the Fall.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
